Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

MD 0994 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 320... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO...AND NORTHEAST AR.
Mesoscale Discussion 0994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern MO...and northeast AR. Concerning...Tornado Watch 320... Valid 262357Z - 270100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of supercells with a history of producing tornadoes will continue eastward with a risk for strong to intense tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster of supercells ongoing across southeastern MO within PDS Tornado Watch #320. Several of these storms have produced tornadoes over the past couple of hours. The environment ahead of these storms is strongly unstable with MLCAPE greater than 4000 J/kg which is very favorable for intense updrafts. Large ambient vorticity and enhanced low-level shear (ESRH >200 m2/s2) is present along a modified outflow boundary from southeast MO into northern AR and western TN/KY, supporting the potential for strong low-level mesocyclones. With STP values greater than 4, these storms will likely remain capable of strong to potentially intense tornadoes this evening. Eventual upscale growth is possible, but a significant tornado risk, along with very large hail and damaging winds remains likely for the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 36708924 36578936 36468971 36479011 36509055 36549120 36609150 36809158 37049155 37309134 37659046 37629039 37468941 37118919 36708924 Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0325 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0325 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more