Severe Storms

WW 319 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 262025Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Extreme Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. Very large hail, up to 2.5 inches in diameter, will be possible, along with the risk for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Joplin MO to 50 miles east northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more