Severe Storms

WW 0322 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 322 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AND TO 10 NNW GSP TO 10 ESE HKY. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 322 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC025-045-071-109-119-179-270240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG UNION SCC001-007-021-023-039-045-047-057-059-071-083-087-091-270240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE CHESTER FAIRFIELD GREENVILLE GREENWOOD LANCASTER LAURENS NEWBERRY SPARTANBURG UNION YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW SOP TO 10 S RDU TO 5 NNE AVC. WW 321 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC051-065-069-083-085-101-127-163-183-185-191-195-270300- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN HALIFAX HARNETT JOHNSTON NASH SAMPSON WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW SOP TO 10 S RDU TO 5 NNE AVC. WW 321 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC051-065-069-083-085-101-127-163-183-185-191-195-270300- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN HALIFAX HARNETT JOHNSTON NASH SAMPSON WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW SOP TO 10 S RDU TO 5 NNE AVC. WW 321 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC051-065-069-083-085-101-127-163-183-185-191-195-270300- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN HALIFAX HARNETT JOHNSTON NASH SAMPSON WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW SOP TO 10 S RDU TO 5 NNE AVC. WW 321 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC051-065-069-083-085-101-127-163-183-185-191-195-270300- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN HALIFAX HARNETT JOHNSTON NASH SAMPSON WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W GSO TO 20 W DAN TO 25 SSE LYH TO 15 W CHO TO 45 W MRB TO 5 NW FKL. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-270240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY NCC001-033-037-057-063-067-077-081-135-145-151-181-270240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CASWELL CHATHAM DAVIDSON DURHAM FORSYTH GRANVILLE GUILFORD ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH VANCE VAC003-011-029-031-037-049-065-083-111-117-125-139-147-171-187- 540-270240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W GSO TO 20 W DAN TO 25 SSE LYH TO 15 W CHO TO 45 W MRB TO 5 NW FKL. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-270240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY NCC001-033-037-057-063-067-077-081-135-145-151-181-270240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CASWELL CHATHAM DAVIDSON DURHAM FORSYTH GRANVILLE GUILFORD ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH VANCE VAC003-011-029-031-037-049-065-083-111-117-125-139-147-171-187- 540-270240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 321 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA WV 262205Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Maryland North-Central North Carolina Western and South-Central Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday evening from 605 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An organized and long-lived squall line will likely continue into the Watch area this evening across western Virginia northward into far western Maryland. Strong to severe gusts ranging from 50-70 mph will be capable of wind damage. Farther south, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorm clusters will probably move into north-central North Carolina during the evening and potentially pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles southeast of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TBN TO 45 NE UNO TO 30 NNW CGI TO 5 ENE MVN TO 35 S MTO TO 5 WNW CMI. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-101-111-121- 129-135-137-270240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI NEWTON POINSETT RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE ILC003-055-065-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-270240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TBN TO 45 NE UNO TO 30 NNW CGI TO 5 ENE MVN TO 35 S MTO TO 5 WNW CMI. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-101-111-121- 129-135-137-270240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI NEWTON POINSETT RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE ILC003-055-065-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-270240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GMJ TO 25 SSE SGF TO 10 ESE TBN. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-229-270240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS OZARK STONE TANEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GMJ TO 25 SSE SGF TO 10 ESE TBN. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-229-270240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS OZARK STONE TANEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GMJ TO 25 SSE SGF TO 10 ESE TBN. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-229-270240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS OZARK STONE TANEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GMJ TO 25 SSE SGF TO 10 ESE TBN. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-229-270240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS OZARK STONE TANEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GMJ TO 25 SSE SGF TO 10 ESE TBN. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-229-270240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS OZARK STONE TANEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GMJ TO 25 SSE SGF TO 10 ESE TBN. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-229-270240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS OZARK STONE TANEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 319 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 262025Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Extreme Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. Very large hail, up to 2.5 inches in diameter, will be possible, along with the risk for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Joplin MO to 50 miles east northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more