Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0335 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0335 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0335 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southern Minnesota into northern...central...and eastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271810Z - 271945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail and gusty wind threat will accompany the stronger storms through the afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The combination of deep-layer ascent with a mid-level trough grazing the Upper MS Valley, and strong diurnal heating, is contributing to the increase in coverage and intensity of thunderstorms over southern MN into northern IA. These storms will progress southeast in an environment characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, which will encourage strong wind gusts (perhaps a couple reaching severe limits) this afternoon. Given elongated hodographs, the longer-lasting multicells will be capable of producing some hail as well. However, the overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43799556 44239431 44089316 43559182 43119114 42439090 41889078 41189113 40809149 40729181 40869236 41399367 41919448 42509524 43409573 43799556 Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

MD 1014 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1014 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Alabama into central and southern Georgia...southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271741Z - 271915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase into the afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are both a concern. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or so to address the severe threat. DISCUSSION...In addition to an ongoing supercell over western Georgia, thunderstorm development and intensification is underway over eastern AL. These storms are forming within an environment characterized by 80+ F surface temperatures and low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Strong mid-level westerly flow is overspreading the region, contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, multicell clusters and transient supercells should develop through the afternoon. Given steep low and mid-level lapse rates, these storms will be accompanied by severe hail and wind. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or so to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31478808 32828525 33858301 33358046 32908022 32188041 31848099 31378402 31108540 30928624 30988755 31478808 Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1013 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN VA INTO PARTS OF MD...DE...CENTRAL/WESTERN PA...NJ...AND NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE... central/western PA...NJ...and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271553Z - 271800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting organized bands of convection is already in place across the region. A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 45057540 44787471 42487405 40527353 37787411 37767592 37877795 38037854 38547872 40997745 43887704 44547643 45057540 Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0333 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0333 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more