Severe Storms

MD 1023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Iowa into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272210Z - 280015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pose a severe wind/hail risk as they move out of eastern Iowa and into far northwest Illinois. However, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated towards central IL later this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern IA continue to show periodic intensification to severe limits based on regional velocity data and MRMS vertical ice/MESH metrics. Recent RAP mesoanalyses continue to show a supportive thermodynamic environment across eastern IA into northwest IL with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg and nearly straight hodographs are noted in regional VWPs with around 30 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this activity appears to be slowly outrunning the cooler temperatures aloft and better low-level moisture that is supporting the buoyancy (downstream observations across central to northern IL show dewpoints mixing out into the upper 40s and low 50s). Some severe wind/hail threat will continue for the next few hours, but a gradual weakening trend appears likely as storms move deeper into IL later this evening. Given the limited environment and coverage of the threat, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 42179189 42509150 42579091 42388959 41788829 41528816 40938820 40478854 39878919 39738976 39729044 39909112 40229190 40499234 40889252 41339253 41849216 42179189 Read more

MD 1022 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...Southern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272142Z - 272345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered to address convection developing to the west of WW 334 into southern and southwest Alabama. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, scattered thunderstorms have developed along a residual outflow boundary across south-central to southwest AL with bubbling cumulus noted in GOES visible imagery further west into southeast MS. This convection is developing just to the west of WW 334, but should mature in a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment characterized by roughly 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-45 knots of effective bulk wind shear. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the boundary should favor upscale growth into clusters with time (with an increasing wind threat), but a large hail threat should manifest in the short term (next 1-2 hours). ..Moore/Smith.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32668651 32698575 32498544 31998540 31508557 31188587 30918639 30818747 30818811 30858852 30908879 30988898 31158908 31448901 31668859 31968807 32388734 32668651 Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 334 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-031-045-061-067-069-081-087-109-113-272340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL GAC001-003-005-007-009-017-019-021-023-029-031-033-037-043-051- 053-061-069-071-075-079-081-091-093-095-099-103-107-109-145-153- 155-161-163-165-167-169-175-177-179-183-191-193-197-201-205-207- 209-215-225-229-235-239-243-249-251-259-261-263-267-269-271-273- 277-279-283-287-289-293-303-305-307-309-315-319-321-272340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BAKER BALDWIN BEN HILL BERRIEN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CALHOUN CANDLER CHATHAM CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY COFFEE Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 334 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-031-045-061-067-069-081-087-109-113-272340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL GAC001-003-005-007-009-017-019-021-023-029-031-033-037-043-051- 053-061-069-071-075-079-081-091-093-095-099-103-107-109-145-153- 155-161-163-165-167-169-175-177-179-183-191-193-197-201-205-207- 209-215-225-229-235-239-243-249-251-259-261-263-267-269-271-273- 277-279-283-287-289-293-303-305-307-309-315-319-321-272340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BAKER BALDWIN BEN HILL BERRIEN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CALHOUN CANDLER CHATHAM CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY COFFEE Read more

WW 334 SEVERE TSTM AL GA SC CW 271810Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Central and Southern Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop, initially this afternoon near a remnant boundary across central/south-central Georgia, eastward into southern South Carolina as well as southeast Alabama. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles southwest of Troy AL to 25 miles south southeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FAY TO 15 SW RWI TO 25 ENE AVC TO 20 WNW RIC TO 5 SSW CHO. ..MOORE..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-272340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-031-033-037-039-045- 047-510-272340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FAY TO 15 SW RWI TO 25 ENE AVC TO 20 WNW RIC TO 5 SSW CHO. ..MOORE..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-272340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-031-033-037-039-045- 047-510-272340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 335 TORNADO DC MD NC VA CW 271940Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central and Eastern Maryland Central and Eastern North Carolina Eastern and Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon across the region. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risk, but some hail is possible, and a moist environment and strong atmospheric winds will also support a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Baltimore MD to Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0337 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0337 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 337 SEVERE TSTM AL FL CW 272210Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for large hail and strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) capable of wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of Mobile AL to 30 miles south southeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW 335...WW 336... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1021 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 335... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 335... Valid 272049Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 335 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 335. Large hail and damaging gusts remain a concern. The best chance for tornadoes would be closer to the coastline ahead of ongoing storms. DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells persist across northeastern NC and are moving northeast toward southeast VA. At the moment, these are the most robust storms across eastern NC/VA, though an increase in thunderstorm coverage is possible later this afternoon. Given widespread 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, most thunderstorms should maintain a multicellular or transient supercell mode through the afternoon. While a tornado or two cannot be ruled out anywhere across Tornado Watch 335 in eastern NC/VA, the best chance for tornadoes appears to be far southeast VA/northeast NC closer to the coast, where backed low-level winds are contributing to slightly larger low-level hodographs. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 35287618 35107687 35097749 35227810 35597877 38577787 39197739 39497704 39557671 39477624 38787584 37327586 35967591 35287618 Read more

MD 1020 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333... FOR PORTIONS OF NY...PA AND NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of NY...PA and NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333... Valid 272040Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333 continues. SUMMARY...Additional bands of thunderstorms are expected into early evening. Strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333. DISCUSSION...Some clearing is evident across western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333, especially across central PA. Additional bands of thunderstorms are expected to develop as a cold front shifts east through evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F are supporting modest instability amid moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow. This should be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms producing gusts to near 60 mph. Any stronger cells also may produce small hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The severe risk should quickly diminish around sunset. ..Leitman.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 44977493 43617407 39697437 39667742 44427669 44977493 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more