Severe Storms

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 333 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA LO CW 271745Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of New Jersey Central and Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Lake Ontario Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to gradually intensify this afternoon within a destabilizing environment ahead of a fast-moving upper-level system over the Northeast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Watertown NY to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more