Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LGC TO 35 SSE ATL TO 45 WNW AGS TO 30 SSW AGS. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-079-125-133-141-145-159-163-169-171-199-207-215-231- 237-263-265-269-285-293-301-303-319-271740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CRAWFORD GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE PIKE PUTNAM TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TROUP UPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LGC TO 35 SSE ATL TO 45 WNW AGS TO 30 SSW AGS. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-079-125-133-141-145-159-163-169-171-199-207-215-231- 237-263-265-269-285-293-301-303-319-271740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CRAWFORD GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE PIKE PUTNAM TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TROUP UPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LGC TO 35 SSE ATL TO 45 WNW AGS TO 30 SSW AGS. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-079-125-133-141-145-159-163-169-171-199-207-215-231- 237-263-265-269-285-293-301-303-319-271740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CRAWFORD GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE PIKE PUTNAM TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TROUP UPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LGC TO 35 SSE ATL TO 45 WNW AGS TO 30 SSW AGS. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-079-125-133-141-145-159-163-169-171-199-207-215-231- 237-263-265-269-285-293-301-303-319-271740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CRAWFORD GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE PIKE PUTNAM TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TROUP UPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more