Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain mostly low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico into portions of Arizona, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Wed. A small 40 percent delineation was added where confidence is highest in single digit relative humidity overlapping 10-15 mph sustained winds. Mid-way through the period D5/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas through the end of the period. Differences in long range model solutions on the overall height pattern and progression of any troughs leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1019 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1019 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Alabama into central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334... Valid 272011Z - 272145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334. Strong thunderstorms should persist through the afternoon with a hail/damaging gust threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and transient supercells continue to develop and track east-southeast amid a strongly unstable environment, characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 20Z mesoanalysis. Regional VADs depict hodographs with modest curvature and elongation, suggesting that storms should remain mainly multicellular through the afternoon. Given strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear in place, wet downbursts within the stronger multicells and especially transient supercells may pose a damaging gust threat. Some hail may also occur, especially with the transient supercells. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32358623 33188301 33498085 33197974 32437991 31558112 31218171 30988346 31048499 31018588 31138614 32358623 Read more

MD 1017 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of north/central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271904Z - 272130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon. Very large hail in the 2.75 to 4 inch diameter range will be possible along with strong gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A roughly west to east oriented surface boundary is noted across north Texas this afternoon. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are prevalent. Strong heating into the 90s F of this very moist boundary-layer and very steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting strong to extreme destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/kg). Visible satellite has shown an increase in coverage of cumulus over the region, with areas of vertical development along the boundary and within a band of low-level confluence to the southwest of the Metroplex. While large-scale ascent will remain somewhat modest, increasing thunderstorm activity across northeast Mexico and increase in midlevel moisture impinging on south-central TX per latest water vapor imagery suggests some modest ascent is increasing over the region. Once convection deepens sufficiently, updrafts will likely grow vigorously given large instability and very steep midlevel lapse rates. Vertical shear will support supercells, with long/straight hodographs within this thermodynamic environment favoring very large hail. Locally strong to severe gusts may also accompany the strongest cells. Timing and coverage of severe storms is still a bit uncertain, but expected storms to develop by around 4pm CDT. While coverage may be sparse, potential for significant hail will likely require a watch issuance in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... LAT...LON 33489744 32849599 32299526 31759521 31299546 30879623 30669674 30619733 30709805 30949835 31749866 32459881 32939882 33299863 33539836 33489744 Read more

MD 1018 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271948Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong gusts will be possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Strong heating to near 100 F has allowed for some mixing of stronger boundary-layer dewpoints over portions of the area. However, dewpoints generally still remain in the 60s F. Very steep midlevel lapse rates also are in place. This is supporting moderate to strong instability within a strongly sheared environment. Furthermore, visible satellite imagery shows deepening/vertically developing cumulus across the MCD area. Forecast soundings depict deep mixing with inverted-v low-level thermodynamic profiles. Given a dry EML, this may support sporadic severe gusts. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs suggest large hail will be possible. Convection has already develop across northeast Mexico and will approach the Rio Grande in the next few hours. This convection also will pose a severe risk if it is maintained across the Rio Grande into TX. Some uncertainty exists regarding coverage and eastward extent of severe potential, but at least a narrow corridor of large hail and strong gust potential is expected. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29420147 30000097 30770016 31349928 31179844 30769817 30259830 28839949 27930040 27900059 28200077 29420147 Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0336 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0336 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0336 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0336 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 336 SEVERE TSTM TX 272050Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North and Central Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop and intensify through late afternoon and early evening within a moist and extremely unstable environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Dallas TX to 70 miles southwest of Hondo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW 335... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-272140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-053-057-061-065-067-071-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093- 095-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON KINGS Read more

WW 333 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA LO CW 271745Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of New Jersey Central and Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Lake Ontario Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to gradually intensify this afternoon within a destabilizing environment ahead of a fast-moving upper-level system over the Northeast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Watertown NY to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across from parts of the Northeast southward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast this afternoon. More isolated activity is possible through this evening across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Changes... Just a minor adjustment of the western edge of the risk areas across the East as scattered storms continue to develop within the moist pre-frontal air mass. Areas of locally stronger low-level shear may favor a brief/weak tornado over parts of the Mid Atlantic. See mesoscale discussion 1016 for more information. For the Southern Plains, extended the Slight Risk southwestward toward the Rio Grande Valley. Visible imagery shows increasing cumulus and hot temperatures should aid storm development with locally severe hail or wind gusts. Farther north into OK, concerns are growing for an early morning hail event as elevated instability develops northward across the 12Z day1/day2 outlook time frame. While most of the development is expected after 12Z, a few storms may produce hail earlier. As such, have brought low hail probabilities/Marginal Risk farther north, however, this does not necessarily mean hail will be small. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. Read more