Severe Storms

MD 1123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...the Eastern TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021046Z - 021145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A supercell over the eastern Texas Panhandle may persist for a couple more hours as it drifts southward. A confined swath of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. The limited spatial extent and uncertainty over longevity should preclude a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Along the trailing outflow from a decayed MCS and remnant MCV over north-central OK, a supercell formed last hour in the northeast TX Panhandle. This storm has been rather slow-moving, drifting southward near 10 kts across Roberts County. Occasionally, this storm has had echo tops over 50k ft, along with MRMS MESH around 2 inches. In addition, robust inbound velocities have also been noted on the west to north side of the deep mesocyclone. With the Amarillo VWP showing relatively stable 30-35 kt low-level southerlies, it is plausible that this supercell may persist for at least a couple more hours as it gradually drifts towards the I-40 corridor. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA... LAT...LON 35910074 35730060 35500036 35270037 35160059 35100088 35330118 35630120 35820115 35910074 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

MD 1122 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...southeast NE and northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020754Z - 020930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail will be possible through about sunrise with an arc of elevated thunderstorms across northeast Kansas to southeast Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Nearly simultaneous to the decay of an MCS over southwest KS/northwest OK, a band of elevated convection intensified across northeast KS/southeast NE. This activity appears to be driven by low-level warm theta-e advection along the MUCAPE gradient. While the 06Z HRRR has minimal reflection of this development, the Hastings and Topeka VWPs indicate moderate low-level south-southwesterly flow. Moderate upper-level west-northwesterlies will remain adequate for transient supercell structures and hail growth. Still, the cluster to loosely linear convective mode should temper peak hail sizes to the 1-1.5 inches in diameter range. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 40109730 40569764 41319783 41459731 41469634 41229573 40389524 39439504 38549544 38189602 38119674 38309714 40109730 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more