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1 year 2 months ago
WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1013 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN VA INTO PARTS OF MD...DE...CENTRAL/WESTERN PA...NJ...AND NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE...
central/western PA...NJ...and NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 271553Z - 271800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2
hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are
possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening.
DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north
ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability
will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where
dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent
into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting
organized bands of convection is already in place across the region.
A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection
increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely
remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and
backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into
eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this
area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard
through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will
likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger
destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads
the region.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...
LWX...
LAT...LON 45057540 44787471 42487405 40527353 37787411 37767592
37877795 38037854 38547872 40997745 43887704 44547643
45057540
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0333 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0333 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.
..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.
South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.
Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.
...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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