Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/02/2024 Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0372 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 2 15:42:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 2 13:55:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NE AND NORTHERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...Central Plains through tonight... Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Slightly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in clusters this morning from eastern NE to eastern KS in association with low-level warm advection on the edge of the surface warm sector. These storms could pose a marginal hail/wind threat before weakening later this morning. Farther west, a few thunderstorm clusters persist from central NE to the TX Panhandle. Like the elevated storms to the east, these storms are also expected to weaken later this morning. In the wake of the morning storms, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. Somewhat stronger forcing for ascent will contribute to storm clustering/upscale growth from western into central NE, where MCS development is likely. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), before upscale growth leads to an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 mph as storms surge eastward during the late afternoon/evening. Any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells, or fortuitous storm interactions. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... The warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... The ongoing storm cluster in the eastern TX Panhandle may persist for a few hours this morning, though its longevity and influence on afternoon convection are uncertain. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moving over NM this morning. 40-50 kt flow above the 500 mb level will help elongate hodographs and favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. The afternoon/evening storms will spread eastward into northwest TX and western OK before beginning to weaken late tonight. ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/02/2024 Read more

MD 1123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...the Eastern TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021046Z - 021145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A supercell over the eastern Texas Panhandle may persist for a couple more hours as it drifts southward. A confined swath of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. The limited spatial extent and uncertainty over longevity should preclude a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Along the trailing outflow from a decayed MCS and remnant MCV over north-central OK, a supercell formed last hour in the northeast TX Panhandle. This storm has been rather slow-moving, drifting southward near 10 kts across Roberts County. Occasionally, this storm has had echo tops over 50k ft, along with MRMS MESH around 2 inches. In addition, robust inbound velocities have also been noted on the west to north side of the deep mesocyclone. With the Amarillo VWP showing relatively stable 30-35 kt low-level southerlies, it is plausible that this supercell may persist for at least a couple more hours as it gradually drifts towards the I-40 corridor. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA... LAT...LON 35910074 35730060 35500036 35270037 35160059 35100088 35330118 35630120 35820115 35910074 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more