Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

MD 1124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE RED RIVER VICINITY FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...The Red River vicinity from Southwest Oklahoma to north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021540Z - 021715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of storms near the Red River may strengthen through early afternoon with a threat for severe wind/hail. Severe coverage/intensity remains uncertain, but will be monitored for watch consideration if severe magnitude/coverage is greater than currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has persisted through the morning from the Texas Panhandle to southwest Oklahoma. Area VWPs show a moderate, but sustained low-level jet which has likely maintained storms thus far. Heating has occurred south of this cluster with SPC mesoanalysis indicating CINH has eroded. Therefore, this cluster may continue through the day with continued development/intensification as it drifts southeast. Deep-layer shear is relatively weak (per area VWPs) which may limit the overall severe weather potential. However, the strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE and increasing) should result in at least some large hail/severe wind threat into the early afternoon. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34879990 35069905 34189728 33439687 32689724 33069883 33689998 34620010 34879990 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The ongoing forecast is largely on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area to the southwest where elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon. Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional meteorological reasoning. Elsewhere, elevated-to-critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of east and northeast New Mexico. However, recent rains should limit fuel receptiveness, precluding the need for elevated or critical delineation. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The ongoing forecast is largely on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area to the southwest where elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon. Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional meteorological reasoning. Elsewhere, elevated-to-critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of east and northeast New Mexico. However, recent rains should limit fuel receptiveness, precluding the need for elevated or critical delineation. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The ongoing forecast is largely on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area to the southwest where elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon. Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional meteorological reasoning. Elsewhere, elevated-to-critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of east and northeast New Mexico. However, recent rains should limit fuel receptiveness, precluding the need for elevated or critical delineation. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The ongoing forecast is largely on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area to the southwest where elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon. Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional meteorological reasoning. Elsewhere, elevated-to-critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of east and northeast New Mexico. However, recent rains should limit fuel receptiveness, precluding the need for elevated or critical delineation. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more