Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...OK/TX... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk areas have been expanded to the east and south of an ongoing bowing cluster of storms near the Red River and western north TX. These storms are expected to continue shifting east/southeast along an instability gradient amid 35-45 kt 0-6 km west/northwesterly flow. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though large hail is also possible within strongest cells. Tornado probabilities have also been adjusted a small amount in the TX Panhandle based on the 18z AMA RAOB, and across southwest TX based on latest surface observations. ...Northern/Central Plains... No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. See previous outlook for more details, and latest MCDs for short term severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...OK/TX... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk areas have been expanded to the east and south of an ongoing bowing cluster of storms near the Red River and western north TX. These storms are expected to continue shifting east/southeast along an instability gradient amid 35-45 kt 0-6 km west/northwesterly flow. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though large hail is also possible within strongest cells. Tornado probabilities have also been adjusted a small amount in the TX Panhandle based on the 18z AMA RAOB, and across southwest TX based on latest surface observations. ...Northern/Central Plains... No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. See previous outlook for more details, and latest MCDs for short term severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...OK/TX... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk areas have been expanded to the east and south of an ongoing bowing cluster of storms near the Red River and western north TX. These storms are expected to continue shifting east/southeast along an instability gradient amid 35-45 kt 0-6 km west/northwesterly flow. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though large hail is also possible within strongest cells. Tornado probabilities have also been adjusted a small amount in the TX Panhandle based on the 18z AMA RAOB, and across southwest TX based on latest surface observations. ...Northern/Central Plains... No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. See previous outlook for more details, and latest MCDs for short term severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Central Plains through tonight... Considerable uncertainty is apparent in this forecast update due in part to mesoscale-driven convective outflow and its effects on destabilization and quality of the warm sector for later this afternoon and tonight. Within generally zonal flow aloft, a low amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across western NE/northeast CO near the southern influence of this midlevel trough, with a weak cold front farther north into the Dakotas. The surface front/cyclone, as well as a lee trough farther to the south will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms will spread eastward through tonight. Late this morning, several thunderstorm clusters have moved east and weakened across the eastern half of NE and central KS. To the west of the outflow/residual cold pools from this early-day activity, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. The net result will be a narrow corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition by mid afternoon from west TX to NE to the east of the lee trough/dryline, when thunderstorm development is expected. The initial storms in western NE into northwest KS could be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and any tornado threat will be tied to the more discrete initial supercells. Eventual upscale growth during the evening will lead to an increasing threat for severe gusts 60-80 mph as this activity develops and moves eastward as a southerly LLJ intensifies. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Similar to the central High Plains, appreciable uncertainty in this forecast due to an ongoing midday thunderstorm cluster over southern OK/north TX (reference MCD #1124 and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #372) and its stabilizing influence and ability to focus storm development later this afternoon and tonight. If fresh outflow is able to be reduced and/or become much more displaced from the dryline by mid-late afternoon, it seems plausible the deleterious effects will be minimal from the western TX Panhandle southward along/east of the dryline. At least widely scattered storms are expected by mid-late afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into west central TX, potentially aided by a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across NM late this morning. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Any mature supercell able to interact in the vicinity of the modified outflow boundary or within richer low-level moisture over the TX South Plains, will potentially yield a tornado risk. Though storm coverage will be a primary driver of any damaging-wind threat, thermodynamic profiles will favor intense downdrafts capable of producing isolated significant outflow gusts of 75-80 mph. A coalescing of storms during the evening into the overnight may eventually move into northwest TX/western OK before weakening late tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that the warm sector will narrow and buoyancy will weaken with northward extent from SD into ND, ahead of the surface cold front. This front, and ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough, will help focus a line of thunderstorms along the front in central ND by early-mid afternoon (possibly evolving from the ongoing storms near the southwest ND border), and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward western MN in the evening and develop southward into SD. The initial storms, or any embedded supercells, will pose a threat for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter, while damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will become the more common threat once a linear mode is established (and before the storms move too far east of the primary buoyancy corridor). ...Southern LA to central/north TX this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a loosely focused corridor from southern LA into parts of southeast, central and north TX along a remnant outflow/returning moisture gradient. Though storm development in any particular area is low confidence, a few storms in this area could pose a threat for isolated large hail/wind damage given large CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length for at least some supercell potential. Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0374 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0374 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CDS TO 40 ESE FSI TO 35 SSE OKC. ..SUPINIE..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-022040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC TXC009-023-077-085-097-121-181-237-275-337-485-497-503-022040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK KNOX MONTAGUE WICHITA WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0373 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0373 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021658Z - 021900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon along and near a remnant outflow boundary. Large hail (some very large), severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible. DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from the ongoing convection near the Red River continues south across the southern Texas Panhandle but is starting to slow. A very moist airmass is in place across this region, even north of the outflow boundary. SPC mesoanalysis suggests inhibition has eroded across the region and some convection has already started to form on the eastern periphery of this outflow boundary south of Childress. Given the significant moisture, strong instability, and uncapped airmass thunderstorms may continue to develop along this outflow boundary which could prompt a watch relatively soon. However, it is also possible that more widespread/robust convection may not occur until later this afternoon as the dryline advances east and the mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor across New Mexico, overspreads the Panhandle. Any storms which develop will likely be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. The extreme instability and steep lapse rates will support large hail up to the size of baseballs. In addition, a localized tornado threat may occur near/the outflow boundary where low-level SRH will be maximized. A watch will eventually be needed across this region with timing as the primary uncertainty at this time. Will monitor trends with ongoing convection along the outflow boundary with watch issuance likely once a severe threat (greater than isolated) appears imminent. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33919960 33459930 32819918 32500020 32730188 33330273 33840283 34340300 35230313 35650289 35800199 35230079 34650013 33919960 Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LTS TO 20 NNE SPS TO 15 SE CHK. ..SUPINIE..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-109-137-021940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-085-097-121-155-181-237-275-337-485-487-497-503- 021940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON FOARD GRAYSON JACK KNOX MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LTS TO 25 SSW FSI TO 15 SSW CHK. ..SUPINIE..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC017-019-027-033-049-051-067-069-085-087-095-099-109-137- 021840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-085-097-121-181-237-337-485-487-497-503-021840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more