Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Highest severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle Texas Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, likely enhanced somewhat by widespread thunderstorms Saturday night, is expected to begin the period extended from central OK through southeast TX. This shortwave is forecast to make steady northeastward progress throughout the day, reaching the Lower OH Valley by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. A separate north-stream shortwave trough will likely will move across Ontario and western Quebec, with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of this wave. An associated cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and is expected to progress eastward across the OH Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front (i.e. from the Mid-South into central TX) will remain largely stationary throughout the day, before then transitioning to a warm front amid strengthening return flow overnight. Farther west, a deep upper cyclone is forecast to progress eastward across the Great Basin before devolving into more of an open wave as it moves through the central Rockies and into the central High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward and reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern OK into central and southeast TX at the start of the period early Sunday morning, although with varying convective modes. A more linear, modestly organized convective line may be ongoing across southeast TX, remnant from Saturday night/early Sunday morning activity across central TX. Gradually decreasing buoyancy should lead to gradual weakening of this line as it moves into west-central/southwest LA. Even so, given the potentially organized character to the line, some damaging gust will still be possible. A more multicellular mode is anticipated throughout the day from eastern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South, supported by persistent forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy. A few stronger updrafts capable of hail are possible, with some limited potential for a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts as well. Farther west, an outflow boundary is expected to extend westward from this decaying convective line, likely from the middle TX Coastal Plain through the Hill Country into the Edwards Plateau. This boundary will likely provide the focus for addition thunderstorm activity during afternoon. Ample low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells with any discrete development. Large hail is primary hazard with initial development, but some trend towards upscale growth is likely, with the resulting convective line tracking along the outflow boundary. Mesoscale nature of this scenario does lead to some uncertainty, particularly on the location of the outflow boundary, but guidance is consistent enough to delineate higher probabilities from the TX Hill Country into the Middle TX Coastal Plain. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... As mentioned in the synopsis, a weak front is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley Sunday. Modest destabilization should occur ahead of this front across OH and western PA, contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization, with occasionally strong to damaging gusts as these storms spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture and scant buoyancy, increasing mid-level moisture and strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the Great Basin shortwave is forecast to support the development of isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the high storm bases and strengthening mid/upper flow, a few strong gusts are possible. Even so, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Highest severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle Texas Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, likely enhanced somewhat by widespread thunderstorms Saturday night, is expected to begin the period extended from central OK through southeast TX. This shortwave is forecast to make steady northeastward progress throughout the day, reaching the Lower OH Valley by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. A separate north-stream shortwave trough will likely will move across Ontario and western Quebec, with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of this wave. An associated cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and is expected to progress eastward across the OH Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front (i.e. from the Mid-South into central TX) will remain largely stationary throughout the day, before then transitioning to a warm front amid strengthening return flow overnight. Farther west, a deep upper cyclone is forecast to progress eastward across the Great Basin before devolving into more of an open wave as it moves through the central Rockies and into the central High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward and reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern OK into central and southeast TX at the start of the period early Sunday morning, although with varying convective modes. A more linear, modestly organized convective line may be ongoing across southeast TX, remnant from Saturday night/early Sunday morning activity across central TX. Gradually decreasing buoyancy should lead to gradual weakening of this line as it moves into west-central/southwest LA. Even so, given the potentially organized character to the line, some damaging gust will still be possible. A more multicellular mode is anticipated throughout the day from eastern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South, supported by persistent forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy. A few stronger updrafts capable of hail are possible, with some limited potential for a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts as well. Farther west, an outflow boundary is expected to extend westward from this decaying convective line, likely from the middle TX Coastal Plain through the Hill Country into the Edwards Plateau. This boundary will likely provide the focus for addition thunderstorm activity during afternoon. Ample low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells with any discrete development. Large hail is primary hazard with initial development, but some trend towards upscale growth is likely, with the resulting convective line tracking along the outflow boundary. Mesoscale nature of this scenario does lead to some uncertainty, particularly on the location of the outflow boundary, but guidance is consistent enough to delineate higher probabilities from the TX Hill Country into the Middle TX Coastal Plain. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... As mentioned in the synopsis, a weak front is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley Sunday. Modest destabilization should occur ahead of this front across OH and western PA, contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization, with occasionally strong to damaging gusts as these storms spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture and scant buoyancy, increasing mid-level moisture and strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the Great Basin shortwave is forecast to support the development of isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the high storm bases and strengthening mid/upper flow, a few strong gusts are possible. Even so, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Highest severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle Texas Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, likely enhanced somewhat by widespread thunderstorms Saturday night, is expected to begin the period extended from central OK through southeast TX. This shortwave is forecast to make steady northeastward progress throughout the day, reaching the Lower OH Valley by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. A separate north-stream shortwave trough will likely will move across Ontario and western Quebec, with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of this wave. An associated cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and is expected to progress eastward across the OH Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front (i.e. from the Mid-South into central TX) will remain largely stationary throughout the day, before then transitioning to a warm front amid strengthening return flow overnight. Farther west, a deep upper cyclone is forecast to progress eastward across the Great Basin before devolving into more of an open wave as it moves through the central Rockies and into the central High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward and reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern OK into central and southeast TX at the start of the period early Sunday morning, although with varying convective modes. A more linear, modestly organized convective line may be ongoing across southeast TX, remnant from Saturday night/early Sunday morning activity across central TX. Gradually decreasing buoyancy should lead to gradual weakening of this line as it moves into west-central/southwest LA. Even so, given the potentially organized character to the line, some damaging gust will still be possible. A more multicellular mode is anticipated throughout the day from eastern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South, supported by persistent forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy. A few stronger updrafts capable of hail are possible, with some limited potential for a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts as well. Farther west, an outflow boundary is expected to extend westward from this decaying convective line, likely from the middle TX Coastal Plain through the Hill Country into the Edwards Plateau. This boundary will likely provide the focus for addition thunderstorm activity during afternoon. Ample low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells with any discrete development. Large hail is primary hazard with initial development, but some trend towards upscale growth is likely, with the resulting convective line tracking along the outflow boundary. Mesoscale nature of this scenario does lead to some uncertainty, particularly on the location of the outflow boundary, but guidance is consistent enough to delineate higher probabilities from the TX Hill Country into the Middle TX Coastal Plain. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... As mentioned in the synopsis, a weak front is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley Sunday. Modest destabilization should occur ahead of this front across OH and western PA, contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization, with occasionally strong to damaging gusts as these storms spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture and scant buoyancy, increasing mid-level moisture and strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the Great Basin shortwave is forecast to support the development of isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the high storm bases and strengthening mid/upper flow, a few strong gusts are possible. Even so, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Highest severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle Texas Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, likely enhanced somewhat by widespread thunderstorms Saturday night, is expected to begin the period extended from central OK through southeast TX. This shortwave is forecast to make steady northeastward progress throughout the day, reaching the Lower OH Valley by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. A separate north-stream shortwave trough will likely will move across Ontario and western Quebec, with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of this wave. An associated cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and is expected to progress eastward across the OH Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front (i.e. from the Mid-South into central TX) will remain largely stationary throughout the day, before then transitioning to a warm front amid strengthening return flow overnight. Farther west, a deep upper cyclone is forecast to progress eastward across the Great Basin before devolving into more of an open wave as it moves through the central Rockies and into the central High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward and reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern OK into central and southeast TX at the start of the period early Sunday morning, although with varying convective modes. A more linear, modestly organized convective line may be ongoing across southeast TX, remnant from Saturday night/early Sunday morning activity across central TX. Gradually decreasing buoyancy should lead to gradual weakening of this line as it moves into west-central/southwest LA. Even so, given the potentially organized character to the line, some damaging gust will still be possible. A more multicellular mode is anticipated throughout the day from eastern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South, supported by persistent forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy. A few stronger updrafts capable of hail are possible, with some limited potential for a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts as well. Farther west, an outflow boundary is expected to extend westward from this decaying convective line, likely from the middle TX Coastal Plain through the Hill Country into the Edwards Plateau. This boundary will likely provide the focus for addition thunderstorm activity during afternoon. Ample low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells with any discrete development. Large hail is primary hazard with initial development, but some trend towards upscale growth is likely, with the resulting convective line tracking along the outflow boundary. Mesoscale nature of this scenario does lead to some uncertainty, particularly on the location of the outflow boundary, but guidance is consistent enough to delineate higher probabilities from the TX Hill Country into the Middle TX Coastal Plain. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... As mentioned in the synopsis, a weak front is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley Sunday. Modest destabilization should occur ahead of this front across OH and western PA, contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization, with occasionally strong to damaging gusts as these storms spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture and scant buoyancy, increasing mid-level moisture and strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the Great Basin shortwave is forecast to support the development of isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the high storm bases and strengthening mid/upper flow, a few strong gusts are possible. Even so, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Highest severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle Texas Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, likely enhanced somewhat by widespread thunderstorms Saturday night, is expected to begin the period extended from central OK through southeast TX. This shortwave is forecast to make steady northeastward progress throughout the day, reaching the Lower OH Valley by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. A separate north-stream shortwave trough will likely will move across Ontario and western Quebec, with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of this wave. An associated cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and is expected to progress eastward across the OH Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front (i.e. from the Mid-South into central TX) will remain largely stationary throughout the day, before then transitioning to a warm front amid strengthening return flow overnight. Farther west, a deep upper cyclone is forecast to progress eastward across the Great Basin before devolving into more of an open wave as it moves through the central Rockies and into the central High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward and reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern OK into central and southeast TX at the start of the period early Sunday morning, although with varying convective modes. A more linear, modestly organized convective line may be ongoing across southeast TX, remnant from Saturday night/early Sunday morning activity across central TX. Gradually decreasing buoyancy should lead to gradual weakening of this line as it moves into west-central/southwest LA. Even so, given the potentially organized character to the line, some damaging gust will still be possible. A more multicellular mode is anticipated throughout the day from eastern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South, supported by persistent forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy. A few stronger updrafts capable of hail are possible, with some limited potential for a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts as well. Farther west, an outflow boundary is expected to extend westward from this decaying convective line, likely from the middle TX Coastal Plain through the Hill Country into the Edwards Plateau. This boundary will likely provide the focus for addition thunderstorm activity during afternoon. Ample low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells with any discrete development. Large hail is primary hazard with initial development, but some trend towards upscale growth is likely, with the resulting convective line tracking along the outflow boundary. Mesoscale nature of this scenario does lead to some uncertainty, particularly on the location of the outflow boundary, but guidance is consistent enough to delineate higher probabilities from the TX Hill Country into the Middle TX Coastal Plain. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... As mentioned in the synopsis, a weak front is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley Sunday. Modest destabilization should occur ahead of this front across OH and western PA, contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization, with occasionally strong to damaging gusts as these storms spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture and scant buoyancy, increasing mid-level moisture and strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the Great Basin shortwave is forecast to support the development of isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the high storm bases and strengthening mid/upper flow, a few strong gusts are possible. Even so, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Highest severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle Texas Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, likely enhanced somewhat by widespread thunderstorms Saturday night, is expected to begin the period extended from central OK through southeast TX. This shortwave is forecast to make steady northeastward progress throughout the day, reaching the Lower OH Valley by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. A separate north-stream shortwave trough will likely will move across Ontario and western Quebec, with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of this wave. An associated cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and is expected to progress eastward across the OH Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front (i.e. from the Mid-South into central TX) will remain largely stationary throughout the day, before then transitioning to a warm front amid strengthening return flow overnight. Farther west, a deep upper cyclone is forecast to progress eastward across the Great Basin before devolving into more of an open wave as it moves through the central Rockies and into the central High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward and reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern OK into central and southeast TX at the start of the period early Sunday morning, although with varying convective modes. A more linear, modestly organized convective line may be ongoing across southeast TX, remnant from Saturday night/early Sunday morning activity across central TX. Gradually decreasing buoyancy should lead to gradual weakening of this line as it moves into west-central/southwest LA. Even so, given the potentially organized character to the line, some damaging gust will still be possible. A more multicellular mode is anticipated throughout the day from eastern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South, supported by persistent forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy. A few stronger updrafts capable of hail are possible, with some limited potential for a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts as well. Farther west, an outflow boundary is expected to extend westward from this decaying convective line, likely from the middle TX Coastal Plain through the Hill Country into the Edwards Plateau. This boundary will likely provide the focus for addition thunderstorm activity during afternoon. Ample low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells with any discrete development. Large hail is primary hazard with initial development, but some trend towards upscale growth is likely, with the resulting convective line tracking along the outflow boundary. Mesoscale nature of this scenario does lead to some uncertainty, particularly on the location of the outflow boundary, but guidance is consistent enough to delineate higher probabilities from the TX Hill Country into the Middle TX Coastal Plain. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... As mentioned in the synopsis, a weak front is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley Sunday. Modest destabilization should occur ahead of this front across OH and western PA, contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization, with occasionally strong to damaging gusts as these storms spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture and scant buoyancy, increasing mid-level moisture and strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the Great Basin shortwave is forecast to support the development of isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the high storm bases and strengthening mid/upper flow, a few strong gusts are possible. Even so, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 Read more

MD 0628 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to central Arkansas and southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041549Z - 041745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the late morning and afternoon hours, but an overall limited kinematic environment should modulate the severe threat. However, a few instances of severe hail and damaging winds appears possible through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, a handful of convective towers and developing thunderstorms have emerged along a surface cold front in eastern OK and across the warm sector as a mid-level impulse propagates across the region. MRMS vertically integrated ice, cloud top temperatures, and lightning trends all show steady intensification as these cells mature in an environment characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Much of eastern OK, AR, and southern MO is in between two synoptic shortwave troughs, which is resulting in relatively weak mid-level winds. However, the gradual approach of an open wave from the southwest will slowly increase mid/upper-level winds through early/mid-afternoon, resulting in elongation of deep-layer wind profiles with effective shear values approaching 20-25 knots. This combination of moderate buoyancy and modest wind fields should allow for some storm organization into multi-cell clusters with an attendant marginal hail risk (most likely between 0.5 to 1.0 inch in diameter). Heading into the afternoon hours, low-level heating of a moist air mass should support surface-based convection with an increasing potential for damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, this threat appears most likely to materialize across central to north-central AR over the next 2-4 hours. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... OUN... LAT...LON 35119676 36199475 37199346 37609241 37649167 37399111 37069084 36429085 35679098 34989127 34519161 34239224 33709437 33679518 33849582 34149637 34589674 34939682 35119676 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast to expand the critical area to include northwest New Mexico. The meteorological reasoning remains the same as below. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of north-central New Mexico this afternoon/evening as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level trough moves across the area. Dry low-level air and modest precipitable water values may result in narrow precipitation cores and the potential for lightning strikes outside areas receiving appreciable precipitation. However, confidence in this conditional scenario is too low to warrant an unconditional dry thunderstorm area ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be moving northeast through the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. In the Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave will pass by to the south. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains and push cooler air against the southern Rockies. ...Southwest... Areas of dry and breezy conditions are probable for parts of the region. Perhaps an area where winds will be enhanced is in the southwest New Mexico vicinity. There, modestly stronger mid-level winds will be present along with some surface pressure gradient enhancement near the westward-moving cold front. Though relatively confined, elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the afternoon. Wind of around 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of north-central New Mexico this afternoon/evening as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level trough moves across the area. Dry low-level air and modest precipitable water values may result in narrow precipitation cores and the potential for lightning strikes outside areas receiving appreciable precipitation. However, confidence in this conditional scenario is too low to warrant an unconditional dry thunderstorm area ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be moving northeast through the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. In the Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave will pass by to the south. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains and push cooler air against the southern Rockies. ...Southwest... Areas of dry and breezy conditions are probable for parts of the region. Perhaps an area where winds will be enhanced is in the southwest New Mexico vicinity. There, modestly stronger mid-level winds will be present along with some surface pressure gradient enhancement near the westward-moving cold front. Though relatively confined, elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the afternoon. Wind of around 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more