Severe Storms

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MAF TO 40 ESE BGS TO 35 NW ABI TO 55 NNW ABI TO 60 E LBB. ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-207-253-353-399-417-441-447-050340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN HASKELL JONES NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MAF TO 40 ESE BGS TO 35 NW ABI TO 55 NNW ABI TO 60 E LBB. ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-207-253-353-399-417-441-447-050340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN HASKELL JONES NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 183 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 041830Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West into Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across portions of the Permian Basin east into the Texas Big Country. Elevated supercells will likely pose a large to very large hail risk. In closer proximity to the surface boundary, a risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may develop later today into the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Hobbs NM to 40 miles east of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Smith Read more

MD 0636 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... FOR SOUTH PLAINS REGION TO CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...South Plains region to central North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183... Valid 050033Z - 050230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across eastern portions of the South Plains, and adjacent western North Texas. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in convective coverage across eastern portions of the South Plains and Big Country region. With that said, somewhat modest shear across this region, along with less instability than areas farther south, has limited overall severe risk to some degree. With that said, storms are forecast to continue moving eastward with time as a low-level jet develops this evening, with some severe risk likely to persist -- given somewhat-more-favorable downstream instability into parts of north-central Texas. Convection remains largely confined with in WW 183 at this time, and while we will continue to monitor areas to the east, new WW -- north of newly issued WW 185 -- may not be required. ..Goss.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32070173 32930122 33360055 34019909 33959765 33769708 32639762 32079908 32070173 Read more

MD 0634 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 184... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 184... Valid 042331Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated supercells, posing all-hazards severe risk, are ongoing in/near Tornado Watch 184. Later, upscale growth/expansion of storms is expected, which is likely to eventually require new/downstream WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest KMAF radar loop shows a persistent supercell moving southeastward across Pecos county, which has produced previous tornadoes and currently appears likely to be producing very large hail. A second supercell which has developed more recently is moving along the Midland/Upton County border, and also poses an all-hazards risk in the short term. Meanwhile, convection is increasing in coverage farther east, including a longer-lived storm now over northern portions of Coleman and Brown counties. With time, CAMs suggest upscale growth emerging from within the broader area of storms, and shifting eastward as an at least semi-organized MCS. This seems plausible, given a fairly well-defined vort max aloft moving across southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas, and an associated increase in a southeasterly low-level jet expected to occur this evening. Resulting QG ascent, combined with the favorably moist/unstable environment downstream, should act to sustain convection and associated expansion of severe risk east of the existing WW. A new WW will likely need to be considered -- perhaps earlier than optimal due to the proximity of the convective increase in the Coleman/Brown county area and vicinity to the eastern edges of WW 183 and 184. ..Goss.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30230290 30750344 31760221 32129930 32159803 31209732 29859737 29519841 29310085 30230290 Read more

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-031-035-053-091-093-099-133-137-143-145-193-209-217- 221-251-259-265-267-271-281-293-299-309-319-323-331-333-385-395- 411-425-453-491-050240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET COMAL COMANCHE CORYELL EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH FALLS HAMILTON HAYS HILL HOOD JOHNSON KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MAVERICK MILAM MILLS REAL ROBERTSON SAN SABA SOMERVELL TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 6R6 TO 25 WSW MAF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-413-435-443-451-461-465- 050240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MAF TO 15 ESE BGS TO 35 NE BGS TO 55 NNE BGS TO 15 S LBB. ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-151-169-173-207-253-263-335-353-399-415-417- 431-433-441-447-050240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN FISHER GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL JONES KENT MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 Read more

MD 0635 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE ARKLATEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050003Z - 050100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts and small hail are possible through the evening hours in the ArkLaTex region. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have been observed during the last few hours across portions of the ArkLaTex region. Small hail and gusty winds have occurred with multiple cores in southeastern AR, as well as a rogue one in southeastern OK. This convection is associated with a modest mid-level speed max moving through the region -- as evidenced in short-term forecast guidance -- in conjunction with diurnal heating. Regional reconnaissance indicates that these storms are moving through an environment supportive of continued multi-cell/supercell structures, characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500+ J/kg and 0-6-km shear up to around 30 kts. The more mature cells appear to be moving generally to the ESE at around 20 kts, yielding some low-level storm-relative helicity in a generally straight shear profile. Rich boundary-layer moisture in conjunction with adequate cloud-layer shear should support a continued threat of small hail and gusty winds with the stronger updrafts. However, as the mid-level speed max propagates to the northeast, updrafts will likely find the lack of bulk shear disturbing, and convection and associated hazards are expected to gradually wane in the next few hours. ..Flournoy/Guyer.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 33099390 33559496 34129511 34559474 34859385 34879274 34449132 33829044 32879040 32689161 32889285 33099390 Read more