Severe Storms

MD 1129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern Colorado...western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021932Z - 022030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms developing over the southeastern Wyoming vicinity should gradually increase/expand eastward/southeastward over the next couple of hours -- likely requiring WW issuance by 02/21z. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows convection slowly increasing across the southeastern Wyoming, with growing TCU southward to the Palmer Divide. This increase is occurring as ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing moving across Wyoming overspreads the area. Recently, a stronger storm has initiated over Banner County in the Nebraska Panhandle, and -- while capping remains in place farther east -- this storm may note the initial stages of the anticipated afternoon/evening severe-weather event over western Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas. Above the aforementioned capping inversion over western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, steep lapse rates are contributing to 2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. As stronger mid-level westerly flow -- associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough -- spreads eastward across the central High Plains, the overall environment will increasingly support potential for severe/supercell storms. Along with potential for very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts are also expected locally -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation within the rather deeply mixed boundary layer. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41000526 41490484 42460226 43200098 43049934 42239929 40019946 39530177 39870481 41000526 Read more

MD 1127 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into far northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021901Z - 022130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across portions of North Dakota this afternoon. A few stronger storms will be accompanied by marginal hail/wind risk, but at this time WW issuance appears likely to remain unnecessary. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows convection developing southward across south-central North Dakota, south of an initial, strong storm now crossing Eddy County. Meanwhile, some increase in cumulus development is evident southwestward into northwestern South Dakota, along a weak cool front. Mixed-layer CAPE currently ranges from around 500 J/kg (northeastern North Dakota) to 1500 to 2000 J/kg southwestward into northwestern South Dakota. This -- combined with modest shear (moderate/roughly unidirectional southwesterly flow in the lower and middle troposphere) suggests a few stronger multicell-type storms can be expected this afternoon, potentially clustering into a larger MCS this evening as storms shift eastward toward Minnesota. Overall severe risk should remain limited however, potentially precluding the need for WW issuance. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46540170 46850076 47659983 48199877 48279816 47689747 46919738 46039798 45670028 45870197 46540170 Read more

WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0375 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1126 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... FOR NORTH/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...north/northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372... Valid 021852Z - 022015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms will likely continue as it moves southeast across southeast Oklahoma and north/northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...A line of storms with a well-established cold pool is moving across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Significant destabilization has occurred ahead of this line with MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Shear remains weak across the northern half of the line (in Oklahoma), but is somewhat better in Texas, which is where the greater severe weather threat will likely be through late afternoon. However, the well-established cold pool and downstream instability will support some severe gust threat across southeast Oklahoma through the afternoon and perhaps persisting into the evening. Watch 372 may need to be expanded across far southern Oklahoma and to the I-20 vicinity in Texas. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33469964 33809869 34269775 35169732 35079607 34619470 34069449 33159457 32699692 32599906 33119994 33469964 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The elevated area was extended to the northwest (into Arizona) to include portions of the Mogollon Rim. Here, conditions should be similar to Sunday with winds 10-15 mph sustained (gusts above 20 mph) and minimum relative humidity falling into the upper-single-digits to (more likely) mid-teens. This will result in at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions are still expected across parts of southern New Mexico. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more