Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening. ...TX... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX. ...FL... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening. ...CO/NM... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening. ...TX... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX. ...FL... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening. ...CO/NM... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening. ...TX... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX. ...FL... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening. ...CO/NM... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 11 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 11 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Texas Hill Country...Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112053Z - 112330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few of storms may become strong enough to briefly produce hail and/or damaging gusts from the Permian Basin into the Texas Hill Country this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined outflow boundary just ahead of the showers and thunderstorms over central TX. Convergence along the western portion of the boundary likely contributed to the initiation of the robust thunderstorm over Schleicher County TX. The airmass downstream of this outflow is moist, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, but warm temperatures aloft are mitigating the overall buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is modest as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear is currently around 30 kt. Even so, persistent low-level convergence along the outflow boundary, particularly the western portion of the boundary, will likely lead to the development of additional thunderstorms. A few of these storms may become strong enough to briefly produce hail and/or damaging gusts. Isolated coverage and limited intensity and duration is anticipated, precluding the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29460104 29730137 29930197 30720212 31000140 30490009 30189895 30279799 29489774 29019825 28719899 28809980 28970032 29460104 Read more

MD 1235 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112055Z - 112300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing along outflow and/or sea-breeze boundaries may pose a hail/wind threat this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will remain sparse, precluding watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing along the eastern NC coast for much of the afternoon, but earlier convection displayed somewhat poor organization/longevity. More recently (within the past 30 minutes), convective intensity has increased based on GOES IR cloud top temperatures and lightning trends - likely the result of increasing SBCAPE associated with peak diurnal warming. Forecast soundings suggest that 30-40 knot winds within the 5-6 km layer should elongate hodographs sufficient to promote some storm organization of the stronger/deeper cells with an attendant risk of large hail. Dewpoint depressions between 20-30 F are noted inland, suggesting that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place that may promote strong to severe downburst winds. However, east/northeasterly storm motions to the cool side of the sea-breeze/outflow boundaries may limit the potential for severe downbursts. Additional convection along the boundaries appears possible, but in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent, thunderstorm coverage (and any associated severe hazards) should remain very limited. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 36307704 36547663 36547621 36337593 36047585 35747615 35457640 35197640 34997644 34917673 34907700 35097717 35397719 35487721 35887718 36307704 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Summary... Elevated fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. A relatively localized area of 70 percent Critical probabilities is anticipated D4/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... Throughout the day D3/Thursday, a cut-off low and associated mid-level jet are expected to move onshore over southern CA, AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula. A deeply mixed air mass ahead of this feature will allow momentum transfer of some of the stronger flow aloft to translate to surface. However, the probability of wind speeds reaching critical thresholds remains low. This closed low will begin to open D4/Friday as it progresses eastward over AZ and NM, with a slow decrease and extent of the mid-level jet. Surface pressure falls across southern NM, and the associated tightening pressure gradient from the NM/AZ border eastward, are still expected to yield at least widespread elevated wind speeds across this region ahead of a cold front. In addition, a small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remain in place near and south of the Gila and San Francisco Mountains, where sustained west-southwesterly wind speeds have a higher chance of persistently exceeding limits. Further north D4/Friday over the Pacific Northwest, another mid to upper-level trough and jet max will shift eastward during the day. Drying, downslope flow and a tightening pressure gradient near the Cascade mountains will likely accompany this feature. As the weekend approaches, increasing west-southwesterly surface flow will return to the southern Great Basin ahead of another cold front. Low Critical probabilities still appear valid within this region D5/Saturday, via momentum transfer from aloft and a locally tightening pressure gradient. Furthermore, increasing mid-level flow will accompany a shortwave trough entering the southern Great Basin D6/Sunday, extending the area of Critical low probabilities across the northern half of AZ, extreme southeastern NV, and far western NM. The potential for elevated to critical conditions to continue into D7/Monday, and perhaps D8/Tuesday, across the Southwest is present. However, confidence in more precise locations is too low at this time to include probabilities. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Summary... Elevated fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. A relatively localized area of 70 percent Critical probabilities is anticipated D4/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... Throughout the day D3/Thursday, a cut-off low and associated mid-level jet are expected to move onshore over southern CA, AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula. A deeply mixed air mass ahead of this feature will allow momentum transfer of some of the stronger flow aloft to translate to surface. However, the probability of wind speeds reaching critical thresholds remains low. This closed low will begin to open D4/Friday as it progresses eastward over AZ and NM, with a slow decrease and extent of the mid-level jet. Surface pressure falls across southern NM, and the associated tightening pressure gradient from the NM/AZ border eastward, are still expected to yield at least widespread elevated wind speeds across this region ahead of a cold front. In addition, a small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remain in place near and south of the Gila and San Francisco Mountains, where sustained west-southwesterly wind speeds have a higher chance of persistently exceeding limits. Further north D4/Friday over the Pacific Northwest, another mid to upper-level trough and jet max will shift eastward during the day. Drying, downslope flow and a tightening pressure gradient near the Cascade mountains will likely accompany this feature. As the weekend approaches, increasing west-southwesterly surface flow will return to the southern Great Basin ahead of another cold front. Low Critical probabilities still appear valid within this region D5/Saturday, via momentum transfer from aloft and a locally tightening pressure gradient. Furthermore, increasing mid-level flow will accompany a shortwave trough entering the southern Great Basin D6/Sunday, extending the area of Critical low probabilities across the northern half of AZ, extreme southeastern NV, and far western NM. The potential for elevated to critical conditions to continue into D7/Monday, and perhaps D8/Tuesday, across the Southwest is present. However, confidence in more precise locations is too low at this time to include probabilities. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Summary... Elevated fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. A relatively localized area of 70 percent Critical probabilities is anticipated D4/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... Throughout the day D3/Thursday, a cut-off low and associated mid-level jet are expected to move onshore over southern CA, AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula. A deeply mixed air mass ahead of this feature will allow momentum transfer of some of the stronger flow aloft to translate to surface. However, the probability of wind speeds reaching critical thresholds remains low. This closed low will begin to open D4/Friday as it progresses eastward over AZ and NM, with a slow decrease and extent of the mid-level jet. Surface pressure falls across southern NM, and the associated tightening pressure gradient from the NM/AZ border eastward, are still expected to yield at least widespread elevated wind speeds across this region ahead of a cold front. In addition, a small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remain in place near and south of the Gila and San Francisco Mountains, where sustained west-southwesterly wind speeds have a higher chance of persistently exceeding limits. Further north D4/Friday over the Pacific Northwest, another mid to upper-level trough and jet max will shift eastward during the day. Drying, downslope flow and a tightening pressure gradient near the Cascade mountains will likely accompany this feature. As the weekend approaches, increasing west-southwesterly surface flow will return to the southern Great Basin ahead of another cold front. Low Critical probabilities still appear valid within this region D5/Saturday, via momentum transfer from aloft and a locally tightening pressure gradient. Furthermore, increasing mid-level flow will accompany a shortwave trough entering the southern Great Basin D6/Sunday, extending the area of Critical low probabilities across the northern half of AZ, extreme southeastern NV, and far western NM. The potential for elevated to critical conditions to continue into D7/Monday, and perhaps D8/Tuesday, across the Southwest is present. However, confidence in more precise locations is too low at this time to include probabilities. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Summary... Elevated fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. A relatively localized area of 70 percent Critical probabilities is anticipated D4/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... Throughout the day D3/Thursday, a cut-off low and associated mid-level jet are expected to move onshore over southern CA, AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula. A deeply mixed air mass ahead of this feature will allow momentum transfer of some of the stronger flow aloft to translate to surface. However, the probability of wind speeds reaching critical thresholds remains low. This closed low will begin to open D4/Friday as it progresses eastward over AZ and NM, with a slow decrease and extent of the mid-level jet. Surface pressure falls across southern NM, and the associated tightening pressure gradient from the NM/AZ border eastward, are still expected to yield at least widespread elevated wind speeds across this region ahead of a cold front. In addition, a small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remain in place near and south of the Gila and San Francisco Mountains, where sustained west-southwesterly wind speeds have a higher chance of persistently exceeding limits. Further north D4/Friday over the Pacific Northwest, another mid to upper-level trough and jet max will shift eastward during the day. Drying, downslope flow and a tightening pressure gradient near the Cascade mountains will likely accompany this feature. As the weekend approaches, increasing west-southwesterly surface flow will return to the southern Great Basin ahead of another cold front. Low Critical probabilities still appear valid within this region D5/Saturday, via momentum transfer from aloft and a locally tightening pressure gradient. Furthermore, increasing mid-level flow will accompany a shortwave trough entering the southern Great Basin D6/Sunday, extending the area of Critical low probabilities across the northern half of AZ, extreme southeastern NV, and far western NM. The potential for elevated to critical conditions to continue into D7/Monday, and perhaps D8/Tuesday, across the Southwest is present. However, confidence in more precise locations is too low at this time to include probabilities. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Summary... Elevated fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. A relatively localized area of 70 percent Critical probabilities is anticipated D4/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... Throughout the day D3/Thursday, a cut-off low and associated mid-level jet are expected to move onshore over southern CA, AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula. A deeply mixed air mass ahead of this feature will allow momentum transfer of some of the stronger flow aloft to translate to surface. However, the probability of wind speeds reaching critical thresholds remains low. This closed low will begin to open D4/Friday as it progresses eastward over AZ and NM, with a slow decrease and extent of the mid-level jet. Surface pressure falls across southern NM, and the associated tightening pressure gradient from the NM/AZ border eastward, are still expected to yield at least widespread elevated wind speeds across this region ahead of a cold front. In addition, a small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remain in place near and south of the Gila and San Francisco Mountains, where sustained west-southwesterly wind speeds have a higher chance of persistently exceeding limits. Further north D4/Friday over the Pacific Northwest, another mid to upper-level trough and jet max will shift eastward during the day. Drying, downslope flow and a tightening pressure gradient near the Cascade mountains will likely accompany this feature. As the weekend approaches, increasing west-southwesterly surface flow will return to the southern Great Basin ahead of another cold front. Low Critical probabilities still appear valid within this region D5/Saturday, via momentum transfer from aloft and a locally tightening pressure gradient. Furthermore, increasing mid-level flow will accompany a shortwave trough entering the southern Great Basin D6/Sunday, extending the area of Critical low probabilities across the northern half of AZ, extreme southeastern NV, and far western NM. The potential for elevated to critical conditions to continue into D7/Monday, and perhaps D8/Tuesday, across the Southwest is present. However, confidence in more precise locations is too low at this time to include probabilities. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...far south Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111938Z - 112145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado will be possible through the late afternoon hours across the Everglades. Watch issuance will not be needed. DISCUSSION...Convective cells embedded with a broad stratiform rain shield across the FL Everglades have taken on supercellular characteristics over the past few hours per reflectivity/velocity imagery from KAMX. Broad/weak, transient mesocyclones have been observed mainly south of the I-75 corridor before weakening as they migrate into a well-established cold pool north of the interstate. Despite the expansive precipitation shield across the region, ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s) is supporting around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which will remain sufficient to support a few deeper convective towers. Additionally, regional VWPs continue to show around 50-100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH with a slight increase in 1 km winds up to 30-35 knots noted over the past hour or so. While not substantial, this low-level shear has been sufficient to support some degree of low-level rotation, which may result in a brief tornado within the Everglades region through late afternoon. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 25198067 25398110 25638124 25818144 25988151 26118134 26138104 26098075 25938022 25778018 25498026 25348040 25258044 25198067 Read more

MD 1232 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Northern New Mexico to central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111910Z - 112115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may be capable of strong to severe downbursts, and perhaps large hail, this afternoon and evening along the eastern slopes of the CO/NM Rockies. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to develop within the higher terrain of the central Rockies from northern NM to central CO. Over the past 30 minutes, some of this activity has begun to propagate off the terrain towards the east/southeast as downstream buoyancy gradually increases. Some uptick in convective intensity is noted as well as, with additional thunderstorm development expected along and east of the central CO Front Range along a diffuse stationary boundary. Continued heating through late afternoon will result in deep boundary-layer mixing with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 9 C/km - especially as temperatures climb into the low 80s. Despite somewhat meager buoyancy (MLCAPE forecast to only reach around 500 J/kg), forecast thermodynamic profiles should be supportive of strong downbursts that may produce sporadic wind gusts between 45-60 mph. A few stronger cells may be capable of hail approaching severe limits, especially near the stationary boundary where southeasterly low-level winds may support slightly stronger deep-layer shear and better storm organization. Given the overall meager kinematic environment and isolated nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35220406 35040432 35000457 35210493 35540527 35910546 36230531 36720516 37280506 37810522 38570520 38860526 39190523 39350495 39370453 39330407 39290376 39100357 38850349 38460352 37950357 36960367 36120380 35220406 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more