Severe Storms

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 242 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 141850Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Northeast Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to form and spread east-northeastward from northern Mississippi and western Tennessee toward northwest Alabama and middle Tennessee through late afternoon/evening. The strongest clusters and/or storms with supercell structure will be capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging winds near 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 35 miles northwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL/EASTERN SC INTO COASTAL/SOUTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of coastal/eastern SC into coastal/southern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142048Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with thunderstorms moving northeastward this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...An MCV related to convection that occurred earlier today across the Southeast remains evident over central NC and vicinity this afternoon. Although cloud cover has remained prevalent across coastal NC/SC today, modest daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass has occurred. Corresponding weak instability (MLCAPE generally 250-750 J/kg) may be sufficient to support surface-based convection through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening along/near the NC/SC Coast. Latest VWP from KLTX shows a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels, associated with the MCV. Even though there appears to be some weakness in the flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer, around 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH may still support low-level updraft rotation and the threat for a brief tornado with any cell that can strengthen. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal/isolated due to the limited instability, and watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33417920 34017987 34707968 35057883 34927793 34457739 33807788 33557854 33417920 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 14 20:32:07 UTC 2024.

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE UOX TO 25 NNW TUP TO 40 NNE TUP TO 40 NW MSL TO 55 E MKL TO 50 SSW CKV TO 40 SE PAH. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-071-081-115-117-141-145-142140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-015-021-037-043-055-079-081-083-085-099-101-103-111-117- 119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-142140- TN Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE UOX TO 25 NNW TUP TO 40 NNE TUP TO 40 NW MSL TO 55 E MKL TO 50 SSW CKV TO 40 SE PAH. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-071-081-115-117-141-145-142140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-015-021-037-043-055-079-081-083-085-099-101-103-111-117- 119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-142140- TN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY AND NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible across the Tennessee Valley into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update is across FL with adjustments to the ongoing level 2-SLGT risk. Convection has largely struggled over land this afternoon along the outflow that trails into south FL from clusters in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, an MCS over the north-central Gulf has persisted longer than most 12Z guidance suggested but does appear to be decaying based on satellite trends. In the near-term, instability remains limited to the northeast of the Gulf MCS and in the wake of the earlier outflow across north/central FL. But eventually, destabilization will occur from the south and west. Overnight, convective development should increase along the low-level baroclinic zone in the northeast Gulf to north FL. Fast mid to upper-level southwesterlies should support a couple mid-level supercells. The recovering instability should yield a primary threat of large hail overnight, but a tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible as well. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY AND NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible across the Tennessee Valley into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update is across FL with adjustments to the ongoing level 2-SLGT risk. Convection has largely struggled over land this afternoon along the outflow that trails into south FL from clusters in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, an MCS over the north-central Gulf has persisted longer than most 12Z guidance suggested but does appear to be decaying based on satellite trends. In the near-term, instability remains limited to the northeast of the Gulf MCS and in the wake of the earlier outflow across north/central FL. But eventually, destabilization will occur from the south and west. Overnight, convective development should increase along the low-level baroclinic zone in the northeast Gulf to north FL. Fast mid to upper-level southwesterlies should support a couple mid-level supercells. The recovering instability should yield a primary threat of large hail overnight, but a tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible as well. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY AND NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible across the Tennessee Valley into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update is across FL with adjustments to the ongoing level 2-SLGT risk. Convection has largely struggled over land this afternoon along the outflow that trails into south FL from clusters in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, an MCS over the north-central Gulf has persisted longer than most 12Z guidance suggested but does appear to be decaying based on satellite trends. In the near-term, instability remains limited to the northeast of the Gulf MCS and in the wake of the earlier outflow across north/central FL. But eventually, destabilization will occur from the south and west. Overnight, convective development should increase along the low-level baroclinic zone in the northeast Gulf to north FL. Fast mid to upper-level southwesterlies should support a couple mid-level supercells. The recovering instability should yield a primary threat of large hail overnight, but a tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible as well. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY AND NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible across the Tennessee Valley into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update is across FL with adjustments to the ongoing level 2-SLGT risk. Convection has largely struggled over land this afternoon along the outflow that trails into south FL from clusters in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, an MCS over the north-central Gulf has persisted longer than most 12Z guidance suggested but does appear to be decaying based on satellite trends. In the near-term, instability remains limited to the northeast of the Gulf MCS and in the wake of the earlier outflow across north/central FL. But eventually, destabilization will occur from the south and west. Overnight, convective development should increase along the low-level baroclinic zone in the northeast Gulf to north FL. Fast mid to upper-level southwesterlies should support a couple mid-level supercells. The recovering instability should yield a primary threat of large hail overnight, but a tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible as well. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY AND NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible across the Tennessee Valley into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update is across FL with adjustments to the ongoing level 2-SLGT risk. Convection has largely struggled over land this afternoon along the outflow that trails into south FL from clusters in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, an MCS over the north-central Gulf has persisted longer than most 12Z guidance suggested but does appear to be decaying based on satellite trends. In the near-term, instability remains limited to the northeast of the Gulf MCS and in the wake of the earlier outflow across north/central FL. But eventually, destabilization will occur from the south and west. Overnight, convective development should increase along the low-level baroclinic zone in the northeast Gulf to north FL. Fast mid to upper-level southwesterlies should support a couple mid-level supercells. The recovering instability should yield a primary threat of large hail overnight, but a tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible as well. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. Read more