Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more