Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern MN/WI early today... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over the western Dakotas. Lift and enhanced low-level thermal/moisture advection ahead of the trough has resulted in scattered thunderstorm development over western MN and eastern SD. These storms may persist through the morning, tracking across central/southern MN by early afternoon with some risk of large hail. Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture will eventually result in moderate CAPE and a risk of organized strong/severe thunderstorms - mainly from central MN eastward after 18z. These storms may grow upscale and track into central WI before weakening, posing a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ...Northern MN/WI later today... In the wake of the aforementioned morning convection, strong daytime heating and moisture advection will result in a corridor of moderate CAPE across central/northeast MN by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures west of this area will heating to near 90F, with forecast soundings showing little cap, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will be subtle, leading to the development of discrete supercells. Several overnight CAM runs suggest intense storms that form will track into the Arrowhead region of MN and areas around Duluth by early evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear with effective SRH values of 300+ m2/s2. It is uncertain how the early storms over southern MN will affect moisture return. If high dewpoint air can make it into the ENH risk area, higher tornado probabilities may become warranted. These storms will likely congeal and spread eastward across northern WI during the evening with a continued risk of damaging winds and some hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern MN/WI early today... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over the western Dakotas. Lift and enhanced low-level thermal/moisture advection ahead of the trough has resulted in scattered thunderstorm development over western MN and eastern SD. These storms may persist through the morning, tracking across central/southern MN by early afternoon with some risk of large hail. Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture will eventually result in moderate CAPE and a risk of organized strong/severe thunderstorms - mainly from central MN eastward after 18z. These storms may grow upscale and track into central WI before weakening, posing a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ...Northern MN/WI later today... In the wake of the aforementioned morning convection, strong daytime heating and moisture advection will result in a corridor of moderate CAPE across central/northeast MN by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures west of this area will heating to near 90F, with forecast soundings showing little cap, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will be subtle, leading to the development of discrete supercells. Several overnight CAM runs suggest intense storms that form will track into the Arrowhead region of MN and areas around Duluth by early evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear with effective SRH values of 300+ m2/s2. It is uncertain how the early storms over southern MN will affect moisture return. If high dewpoint air can make it into the ENH risk area, higher tornado probabilities may become warranted. These storms will likely congeal and spread eastward across northern WI during the evening with a continued risk of damaging winds and some hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern MN/WI early today... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over the western Dakotas. Lift and enhanced low-level thermal/moisture advection ahead of the trough has resulted in scattered thunderstorm development over western MN and eastern SD. These storms may persist through the morning, tracking across central/southern MN by early afternoon with some risk of large hail. Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture will eventually result in moderate CAPE and a risk of organized strong/severe thunderstorms - mainly from central MN eastward after 18z. These storms may grow upscale and track into central WI before weakening, posing a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ...Northern MN/WI later today... In the wake of the aforementioned morning convection, strong daytime heating and moisture advection will result in a corridor of moderate CAPE across central/northeast MN by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures west of this area will heating to near 90F, with forecast soundings showing little cap, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will be subtle, leading to the development of discrete supercells. Several overnight CAM runs suggest intense storms that form will track into the Arrowhead region of MN and areas around Duluth by early evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear with effective SRH values of 300+ m2/s2. It is uncertain how the early storms over southern MN will affect moisture return. If high dewpoint air can make it into the ENH risk area, higher tornado probabilities may become warranted. These storms will likely congeal and spread eastward across northern WI during the evening with a continued risk of damaging winds and some hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern MN/WI early today... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over the western Dakotas. Lift and enhanced low-level thermal/moisture advection ahead of the trough has resulted in scattered thunderstorm development over western MN and eastern SD. These storms may persist through the morning, tracking across central/southern MN by early afternoon with some risk of large hail. Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture will eventually result in moderate CAPE and a risk of organized strong/severe thunderstorms - mainly from central MN eastward after 18z. These storms may grow upscale and track into central WI before weakening, posing a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ...Northern MN/WI later today... In the wake of the aforementioned morning convection, strong daytime heating and moisture advection will result in a corridor of moderate CAPE across central/northeast MN by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures west of this area will heating to near 90F, with forecast soundings showing little cap, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will be subtle, leading to the development of discrete supercells. Several overnight CAM runs suggest intense storms that form will track into the Arrowhead region of MN and areas around Duluth by early evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear with effective SRH values of 300+ m2/s2. It is uncertain how the early storms over southern MN will affect moisture return. If high dewpoint air can make it into the ENH risk area, higher tornado probabilities may become warranted. These storms will likely congeal and spread eastward across northern WI during the evening with a continued risk of damaging winds and some hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more