Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0292 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more