Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061- 065-067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137- 147-151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207- 209-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-237-239-232040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE LCI TO 5 N AUG TO 45 N CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-013-015-019-023-027-029-232040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK KNOX LINCOLN PENOBSCOT SAGADAHOC WALDO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061- 065-067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137- 147-151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207- 209-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-237-239-231940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

MD 0910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0910 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into south-central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231653Z - 231900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible with scattered storms this afternoon. A watch is possible for portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into central Kentucky if trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Cumulus have become more vertically developed along an outflow boundary in Middle Tennessee. With the approach of an MCV, now near Western Tennessee, and continued heating, storm coverage is likely to increase over the next few hours. Storm coverage into Kentucky may initially be limited, but daytime heating should destabilize the outflow by the afternoon. Wind damage will likely be the primary threat with scattered storms this afternoon. The 12Z observed BNA sounding showed mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km and effective shear should modestly increase today. A few supercell structures could also produce large hail. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... LAT...LON 35318539 35308654 35668730 36288762 36458758 36578748 37258666 37538612 37538535 37368476 37208443 36588376 35848397 35318529 35318539 Read more

MD 0909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Much of Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231603Z - 231800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon across as a line of storms moves across Maine. Overall severe coverage remain uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals some scattered deepening cumulus across northern ME, beneath the high clouds spreading northeastward into the region. Thus far, these clouds remain fairly flat, but are indicative of airmass destabilization. This is occurring downstream of a line of convection over northern NH/far northwest ME. Expectation is that this line will continue eastward while the moist and buoyant downstream airmass continues to destabilize. This will likely support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity within this line as it moves eastward across ME this afternoon. Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s, helping to support moderate buoyancy around 1500 J/kg. Moderate westerly flow aloft already in place is expected to persist, and this combination of buoyancy and shear will likely support an organized convective line with occasionally strong updrafts. These storms coupled with steep low-level lapse rates could result in damaging gusts. Some hail is also possible within the stronger cores. Convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45146843 44696888 44226957 43997014 43877053 44017071 44587082 45197054 46566963 46716859 46146809 45146843 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more