Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0293 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 231840- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 231840- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more