Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER AND MIDDLE COASTS OF TEXAS...NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas later this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Smith/Lyons.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER AND MIDDLE COASTS OF TEXAS...NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas later this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Smith/Lyons.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER AND MIDDLE COASTS OF TEXAS...NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas later this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Smith/Lyons.. 06/19/2024 Read more