Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0432 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more