Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 Read more