Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BRD TO HIB TO 40 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-137-181340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON ST. LOUIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 432 SEVERE TSTM MN 180710Z - 181400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday morning from 210 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of convection will move east-northeastward across northern Minnesota overnight, with other strong to potentially severe storms preceding it, with locally damaging winds and some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Detroit Lakes MN to 20 miles south southeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 431... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1316 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432... FOR NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432... Valid 181103Z - 181230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm gusts of 45-60 mph remain possible across portions of northeast Minnesota the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...An organized line of thunderstorms will continue shifting east across northeast MN the next couple of hours. Measured gusts have mostly been in the 45-60 mph range over the past hour. Moderate elevated instability amid strong vertical shear should maintain thunderstorm intensity for another 1-2 hours. With eastward extent, this activity may weaken as it approaches the MN Arrowhead/Lake Superior where temperatures are cooler and an earlier cluster of thunderstorms has likely modified the airmass, resulting in weaker instability. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 48759320 48429200 46909188 46389258 46139390 46429483 46929492 48019427 48479391 48759320 Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BRD TO 50 WNW HIB TO 25 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-035-061-137-181240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CROW WING ITASCA ST. LOUIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DTL TO 15 SSW BJI TO 15 WNW INL. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-021-035-057-061-071-111-137-159-181140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FAR TO 40 W BJI TO 35 ENE RRT. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-017-021-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-111-137-159- 167-181040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS WADENA WILKIN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 431 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 180340Z - 181100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and east-central North Dakota Central and northern South Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasingly organized thunderstorms are expected to grow in coverage and move northeastward across the watch area over the next several hours. Though north of a warm front and nominally elevated in character, this activity still may penetrate severe gusts to the surface, as well as producing sporadic large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Pierre SD to 5 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW FAR TO 10 SE TVF TO 15 S ROX. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-017-021-027-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-107-111- 119-137-159-167-180940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI CARLTON CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL POLK ST. LOUIS WADENA WILKIN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE PIR TO 15 NNW PHP TO 35 ESE MBG TO 45 N ABR TO 35 N FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC017-073-077-081-180940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-055-065-089-107-117-119-129-180940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HUGHES MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PHP TO 15 S MBG TO 45 E JMS TO 5 SE GFK TO 15 S HCO. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-097-180840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL SDC013-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129-180840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1315 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431... FOR NORTHEAST SD...EASTERN ND...AND NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast SD...eastern ND...and northwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431... Valid 180649Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm gusts around 45-60 mph remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431. DISCUSSION...A semi-organized line of convection will continue to shift east across eastern ND and northeast SD the next few hours. Mostly sub-severe gusts in the 40-50 mph range have be noted in surface observations. However, JMS recently gusted to 60 mph. Expect this general trend to continue across the watch area for another 1-2 hours. Trends are being monitored for possible downstream watch into parts of MN. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 48309770 48369654 48229508 47739412 47029390 46379420 45979518 45229749 44669892 44559981 45020050 45750035 48309770 Read more