Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more