Severe Storms

MD 1335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...portions of the middle to upper Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192058Z - 192230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may be capable of occasional damaging gusts this afternoon/evening. Limited potential for storm organization should keep the risk isolated. DISCUSSION...Across parts of the upper MS Valley, afternoon radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms have developed near a slow-moving cold front stretching from southern WI to northern MO. Over the past hour, a few of these storms have intensified with a noted increase in lightning. Strong diurnal heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F ahead of the front have resulted in 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. While buoyancy will likely support additional storm development and occasional vigorous updrafts, vertical bulk shear is rather weak with area VADs sampling generally less than 20 kt. This, along with much of the stronger convection being confined near and behind the front suggests that storm organization will likely be limited. Steep low-level lapse rates in the lowest 2km may support occasional stronger downdrafts, especially with any more persistent storm clusters. The risk for isolated damaging gusts will likely continue into this evening as storm coverage slowly increases. However, the limited potential for storm organization suggests a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 42048810 41888844 40219125 39249301 39489361 39829379 39929367 40539262 40929178 41649096 42968974 43768886 44038836 43968808 43768786 43348774 42778769 42048810 Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-027-028-035-043-047-049-057-192240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS OTERO SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE TORRANCE TXC141-229-192240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1334 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...east-central NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191942Z - 192145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few drifting cells may congeal into a slow-moving cluster, centered on east-central New Mexico, through early evening. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Convective development has increased this hour near a residual outflow boundary and along on the higher terrain from the Sacramento Mountains northward. Adequate veering of the low-level wind profile with height from low-level east-southeasterlies turning to mid-level southwesterlies (as sampled by the FDX VWP) may support transient supercell structures. This would seemingly be most favored near the large-scale outflow boundary, but convection in this corridor has already shown a tendency to cluster quickly. While a more longer-lasting supercell could develop, the predominant expectation is for transient organization and slow-moving clustering into early evening. Isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts from 55-70 mph appear possible. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34730623 35290521 35560439 35460364 34970320 33710330 33130455 32750525 32960567 33950610 34640624 34730623 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0436 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more