Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 19 19:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1333 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast Indiana...southern Lower Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191747Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the potential for some clustering. Damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible and a WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1740 UTC, early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed initial updrafts were deepening across parts of eastern IN and northwestern OH along the western edge of a strong east coast ridge. Intermixed with scattered high clouds, strong diurnal heating is ongoing along a subtle confluence axis aiding in further vertical development. Observational trends and hi-res guidance suggest scattered storm development is likely over the next couple of hours as convective temperatures are breached and remaining inhibition is removed. 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates are supporting moderate buoyancy (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) more than adequate for strong updrafts. Area VADs show a slight enhancement of mid-level flow along the periphery of the broad ridge over the eastern US. While not overly strong, bulk shear values of 20-25 kt should be sufficient for sustained multi-cells with some potential for clustering. Drier mid-level air and steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for a few more robust downdrafts capable of damaging severe gusts. A few instances of marginally severe hail are also possible with the longer lived and deeper updrafts given the relatively large buoyancy and somewhat enhanced vertical shear. With the potential for some stronger clusters of storms to develop and persist, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon for portions of OH, IN and Lower MI. ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 40018499 40638543 41238538 42148457 42688375 42828319 42668254 41988301 41738293 41608256 41558212 41598182 41588148 41408147 41308151 40698209 39828360 39808378 39778418 40008485 40018499 Read more

MD 1332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of the TX Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191643Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic waterspouts may move onshore as a brief tornado before likely weakening inland. Overall threat may remain relatively lower-end in the near-term, but will continue to be monitored for a narrow tornado watch. DISCUSSION...Several offshore circulations have been noted late this morning but with a consistent weakening trend as convection has approached the coast. As of 1635Z, near-term waterspout threat appears roughly centered from the Galveston to Corpus Christi vicinity, where 0-1 km shear of 25-35 kts persists in HGX/CRP VWP data. Visible satellite and radar trends suggest a 30-90 min relative lull in convection may occur along the coast between the ongoing band of cells and another band of cells 60-80 nm offshore. This break may become necessary for some increase in surface-based destabilization along the coast as modified 12Z CRP/BRO soundings suggest it remains limited. If this occurs, an increase in brief tornado potential may be realized this afternoon. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 29209503 28699529 28229636 27279717 26679729 26749770 27959729 28869618 29209503 Read more

MD 1331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NY into New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191610Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic, localized downbursts with gusts from 50-60 mph along with small hail of 0.5-1.0 inch in diameter will be possible with pulse-type thunderstorms through this afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of eastern NY into VT, with increasingly agitated Cu downstream into NH and western ME. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should occur through the afternoon amid a moderate buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, driven by 71-74 F surface dew points in lower elevations. Deep-layer shear is weak per the CXX VWP data and is expected to remain so, especially with eastern extent in New England. Slightly greater mid to upper flow upstream over the Lower Great Lakes, per the 12Z BUF sounding, may support weakly organized clustering by peak heating. But slow-moving, pulse-type storms should largely dominate. Primary threat should be localized downbursts with strong gusts capable of producing sporadic tree damage. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42007348 42987507 44657409 45107373 45817031 45606941 45026949 44177051 42897213 42007348 Read more