Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S COT TO 10 SSE NIR TO 35 S PSX. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-489-505- 200840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-250-255-200840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1338 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 437... FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1338 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...Deep South Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 437... Valid 200444Z - 200645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 437 continues. SUMMARY...Occasionally strengthening showers and thunderstorms may continue to be accompanied by potential for a brief, weak tornado into the 1-3 AM CDT time frame. DISCUSSION...As Alberto slowly progresses toward the Mexican Gulf coast, a broad belt of moderately strong cyclonic easterly low-level flow (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb) will likely be maintained to its north, across and inland of Deep South Texas coastal areas into the overnight hours. Beneath this regime, moderately large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may be maintained at least several more hours. Coupled with the potential for appreciable upward vertical motion within the lowest couple of kilometers above ground level, aided by the instability associated with a tropical moist boundary layer (including upper 70s to near 80F surface dew points), this will continue to contribute to an environment supportive of occasionally intensifying low-level mesocyclones within scattered inland progressing convection. ..Kerr.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27709991 28059863 28299699 27179662 26719719 26079757 25759871 27129981 27709991 Read more