Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern NE and IA. At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and the Dakotas, aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable. ...Central and northern Plains... Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO, and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with wind potential. Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates look to be poor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday. Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any stronger embedded cells. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2024 Read more

MD 1843 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 603... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1843 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast South Carolina into southern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 603... Valid 061540Z - 061745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 603 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat continues across portions of the coastal Carolinas in association with Tropical Storm Debbie. A few brief tornadoes may accompany the stronger storms through at least early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple bands of stronger showers and thunderstorms are impinging on the counties in northern SC into southern NC that border the Atlantic in advance of the center of TS Debbie, which continues to gradually drift north-northeastward this morning. Given poor tropospheric lapse rates and widespread, persistent cloud cover, overall buoyancy should remain modest (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, supported mainly by mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints). Around 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH may overspread the 80+ F surface temperatures along coastal NC later this afternoon, where a slight uptick in tornado potential may be realized. Otherwise, a persistent threat of a stray, brief tornado should persist while gradually shifting northward along the NC Outer Banks through the day. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 34857747 34557724 33967770 33667801 32627958 32498000 33637988 34357926 34897855 34947783 34857747 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous Isolated Dry Thunder area has been tweaked to reflect the latest thinking on convective coverage this afternoon, and the Elevated risk area has been expanded slightly to account for observed trends this morning. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN OHIO ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will affect areas from northern Ohio into New Jersey today. Others areas of concerns include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN OHIO ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will affect areas from northern Ohio into New Jersey today. Others areas of concerns include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN OHIO ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will affect areas from northern Ohio into New Jersey today. Others areas of concerns include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 08/06/2024 Read more