Severe Storms

MD 1849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...Central and Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062044Z - 062245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some severe thunderstorms will be possible across central and southern Arizona this afternoon and evening, capable of primarily damaging straight-line winds. Watch issuance remains uncertain at this time, given uncertainty in future convective development and organization. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the Mogollon Rim in Arizona, where daytime heating has resulted in surface temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s F at the top of the rim, and low-to-mid 100s F down in the lower desert. Deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles and generally weak flow aloft will support damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow. Current upper-air analyses and water vapor satellite trends suggest a belt of modest 20-25 kt easterly flow beginning to overspread central and southern Arizona, which could aid in convective organization and an increased severe threat. However, given convection has yet to move off of the Mogollon Rim, there is significant uncertainty in the magnitude of convective organization that can be expected. ..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 34571408 35221360 35641309 35661222 35491175 35111146 34761117 34471106 33991112 33471121 32981154 32461199 32241278 32331359 32471371 32911401 33421416 33851421 34571408 Read more

MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...Western and Central Montana into Northern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062015Z - 062245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across portions of central and western Montana, as well as portions of northern Wyoming, later this afternoon or early evening... primarily for damaging winds and hail. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed over portions of Idaho and Montana ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough, progressing eastward from OR/WA. Current SPC Mesoanalysis and forecast proximity soundings suggests that the ongoing convection in Montana is rooted above the boundary-layer, but may later become surface based as the boundary-layer continues to mix throughout the afternoon. Recent satellite trends suggests additional convective development over far eastern ID and western MT is likely, which will move eastward into central MT this afternoon and evening. Ongoing convection in far northwestern WY, where surface-based CINH has eroded, will also move eastward into north-central and northeastern WY. Convection is expected to be high-based, with MLLCL heights ranging from 2-3 km in height due to modest dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s F. However, MLCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, coupled with deep-layer shear values between 35-45 kts (owing to mostly straight-line hodographs), will support organized convective clusters and high-based supercell thunderstorms. Due to the high based nature of convection, and relatively dry boundary layer profiles, damaging straight-line winds from thunderstorm outflow will be possible. Additionally, any organized supercells will be capable of large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45330964 46331172 46851245 47461289 48241276 48961261 48981011 48950843 48330764 47280661 46380587 44630509 44100523 43820565 43840640 44190723 44670814 45330964 Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 605 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV LE 061540Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Ohio Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Panhandle of West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and traverse the watch area through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main concerns. A tornado or two is also possible later this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Mansfield OH to 45 miles northeast of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 603...WW 604... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 062340- PA Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-031-047-129-133-141-062340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PENDER SCC041-043-051-067-089-062340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURG AMZ158-250-252-254-256-062340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-062340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-062340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-033-045-062340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK SHERIDAN WESTON Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-062340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-062340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-033-045-062340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK SHERIDAN WESTON Read more

WW 608 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 062205Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 405 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and evening and spread eastward across the Watch area. The stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph). Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) may also accompany the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Miles City MT to 45 miles north northeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 605...WW 606...WW 607... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more