Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-031-047-129-133-141-062240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PENDER SCC041-043-051-067-089-062240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURG AMZ158-250-252-254-256-062240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077- 081-083-085-093-099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-175- 062240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE WYANDOT PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-085-087-093- 097-099-107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-062240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-062240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 062240- PA Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...606... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio and much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605...606... Valid 062029Z - 062130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605, 606 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 605-606. Damaging gusts should remain the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail are possible and a tornado still cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...At least three linear convective complexes have organized across northern OH into PA and NJ over the last few hours, with the north OH and central PA complexes having a history of producing strong, damaging gusts. A radar-indicated tornado also occurred with a QLCS circulation just south of Cleveland, OH. The western lines of storms are progressive, with the central PA line of storms having the most residence time within an ambient unstable airmass characterized by 85-90 F surface temperatures and up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, the northern OH complex is poised to overspread a convectively overturned airmass over the next few hours, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. In the meantime (i.e. next couple of hours), an additional QLCS tornado may still occur given the presence of mesovortices established in the leading-line of convection. Storms in southeast PA into NJ are not as progressive, and they have been overturning the airmass in the region, which may limit the severe threat with the central PA storms as they approach this worked over airmass. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41448295 41878061 41477492 40527374 39927391 39567532 39757871 40038122 40248233 40678325 41448295 Read more

MD 1846 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 603... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 603... Valid 061956Z - 062100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 603 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should continue through the afternoon across Tornado Watch 603. A replacement tornado watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Occasionally transient supercells have produced brief bouts of appreciable low-level rotation over the past few hours along the NC coastline. However, no tornado reports have been received, or indicated via a TDS on radar. Given widespread cloud cover and precipitation, the inland airmass has struggled to destabilize. While regional VADs show curved low-level hodographs and potentially greater than 200 m2/s2 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH, the limited buoyancy may temper the tornado threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the stronger low-level shear will overspread existent buoyancy for several hours this afternoon, affording the opportunity for at least a couple of brief tornadoes to occur. As such, a replacement watch may be needed in the next hour, as Tornado Watch 603 expires. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33867876 34757845 34997778 35047682 34857656 34537674 34127748 33827781 33697832 33867876 Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077- 081-083-085-093-099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-175- 062140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE WYANDOT PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039- 041-043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081- 085-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-113-119-121-125-129-133- 062140- PA Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-062140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-062140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 062140- PA Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0607 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this afternoon and evening. Others areas of concern include much of Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes. Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continues. Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast. Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong low-level shear near the NC/SC border. Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north to better encompass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...OH to NJ... Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving shortwave trough over Lower MI. This feature will track eastward across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong heating/destabilization. This will lead to multiple clusters of intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail. Winds aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively weak. Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today, posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well. ...MT/WY/SD... Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen. A plume of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid afternoon. This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and intensify. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. ...AZ... A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico tracking slowly westward. Enhanced easterly mid level winds around the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ today. A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening into the lower deserts. This pattern appears favorable for a more organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today. ...Carolinas... TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few tornadoes through the forecast period. Read more