Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1854 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 607... FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 607... Valid 070425Z - 070630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 607 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of tornadoes is gradually lowering across coastal portions of the Carolinas. New tornado watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...TS Debby remains located off the Carolina Coast south of CHS. Several broken convective bands persist within the eastern hemisphere of this cyclone with the most pronounced activity rotating inland from southeast SC into southern NC, within the main body of ww607. 00z soundings from CHS and MHX exhibit only modest shear with typical poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy. Earlier this evening several weak supercells were noted within the stronger bands, but updrafts appear to have weakened per radar and lightning data. Given the modest shear, and poor buoyancy, new Tornado Watch is not currently anticipated. ..Darrow.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 33777996 35257702 34477656 33007950 33777996 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more