Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PIR TO 35 SSW MBG TO 45 WSW ABR TO 30 WSW ABR. ..EDWARDS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-049-059-065-069-075-085-107-117-119-280640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN POTTER STANLEY SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC005-013-025-037-073-077-097-111-115-280640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEADLE BROWN CLARK DAY JERAULD KINGSBURY MINER SANBORN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more