Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF COASTAL NC INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Areas affected...Parts of coastal NC into extreme northeast SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071256Z - 071500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two may develop this morning. DISCUSSION...Multiple bands of convection to the northeast of Tropical Storm Debby are approaching coastal NC this morning, with occasional weak rotation noted offshore. Widespread cloudiness will inhibit diurnal heating inland today, but tropical moisture will continue to support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg near the coast, where temperatures can remain in the upper 70s to near 80 F (as noted on the 12Z MHX sounding). Low-level shear remains somewhat favorable for transient rotating cells, with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 100-200 m2/s2 range for observed storm motions this morning. As Debby gradually moves east-northeastward, slightly stronger low-level flow may overspread parts of coastal NC through the day, maintaining a low but persistent threat for a brief tornado, should any stronger cells develop and be sustained within banded convection over the northeast quadrant of Debby. ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34317873 35117800 35667686 35557617 35047591 34567628 34087713 33727759 33487808 33307883 33467910 33947899 34317873 Read more