Severe Storms

MD 1459 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280346Z - 280515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least a few severe gusts could occur in eastern SD, east of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. An additional downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed pending favorable convective trends and high enough confidence in continued severe gusts. DISCUSSION...The southern portions of a mature MCS continue to rapidly progress eastward, with echo tops exceeding 50 kft at times. The southern portion of this MCS remains well organized, and continues to produce measured severe gusts (per recent surface observations). Though MLCINH continues to increase, 03Z mesoanalysis also shows 3000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately to the south of the ongoing MCS, which is likely supporting continued severe potential. Surface temperatures and MLCAPE do decrease with eastern extent into eastern SD, so it is unclear if/how much of the severe gust threat will extend past the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. As such, convective intensity and wind report trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43899814 44249870 45399867 45779867 45909859 45899782 45779734 44819694 44239706 44029734 43899814 Read more

MD 1458 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0950 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...southern North Dakota into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 280250Z - 280445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Severe gusts are the main threat with an ongoing MCS, particularly over SD. DISCUSSION...A well-organized MCS continues to progress eastward across central portions of central ND into central SD. This MCS has a history of many severe gusts. However, the severe-gust frequency has recently been trending downward. This weakening trend coincides with nocturnal stabilization, where boundary-layer decoupling and increasing MLCINH has been noted via 02Z mesoanalysis. Still, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of the southernmost portion of the MCS in central SD, where strong wind gusts (perhaps exceeding 60 mph) are still possible over the next few hours. Nonetheless, an overall weakening trend should continue into the evening hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 44210099 45460128 46760114 47160078 47009979 46549916 45509878 44419883 44089948 44010032 44210099 Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0479 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PHP TO 20 SW MBG TO 20 SE BIS TO 50 SSW DVL. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-047-051-280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH SDC017-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119-129- 280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PHP TO 20 SW MBG TO 20 SE BIS TO 50 SSW DVL. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-047-051-280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH SDC017-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119-129- 280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475... FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...southern South Dakota southward to eastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475... Valid 280116Z - 280315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk has diminished within WW 475 from far southern South Dakota southward, as existing/very isolated storms have decayed over the past hour. Very limited severe risk persists, given potential for an additional storm or two, but no appreciable increase in coverage/risk is anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the few isolated/strong to severe cells which were ongoing from from western Nebraska to eastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas have diminished/dissipated over the past hour. A moist/unstable airmass persists east of the surface trough, but the boundary layer will continue to nocturnally cool, along with an associated increase in capping as depicted in the LBF 00Z RAOB. As such, any additional storm development in the next couple of hours should remain very isolated at best. ..Goss.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 38720273 39740228 41410260 42760240 43350240 43580103 43490028 41539988 39079962 38720273 Read more

MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0904 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 280204Z - 280300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Severe weather risk remains maximized along the Oklahoma Panhandle/southwestern Kansas border, where damaging winds and hail remain possible. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong/severe storms continues moving eastward across the border area of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas. The storms are occurring within a moderately unstable environment, aided by a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet, and remain capable of producing hail in excess of severe levels, and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. East of the watch, a more stable airmass is indicated, suggesting lesser severe risk with eastward extent. As such, downstream WW issuance may not be required, with primary risk likely to remain confined to areas with WW 477. ..Goss.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37579847 36649945 36540092 36990110 37999941 38269852 37579847 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S Y22 TO 30 ESE Y22 TO 40 WSW BIS TO 30 NW BIS TO 45 SSW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-043-047-051-059-085-103-280340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SIOUX WELLS SDC017-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119- 129-280340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH Read more

MD 1455 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 280111Z - 280245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a QLCS tornado remains possible. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS with a history of several severe gusts (some of which were measured in the 80-90 mph range per surface observations) continues across western ND/SD. The most recent significant-severe gusts have occurred within mesovortices across southwestern ND, where a QLCS tornado also remains possible. However, 00Z mesoanalysis depicts 0-3 km lapse rates rapidly decreasing over ND with east extent, but with 6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates present over a wider corridor in SD. As such, severe gust potential (including peak 75-85 mph gusts) will be greatest over southern ND into northern SD for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43880095 46560203 48050262 48430262 48500119 47920019 46599945 45239914 44329928 43799998 43880095 Read more

MD 1454 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475... FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475... Valid 272347Z - 280145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging gusts and isolated hail should gradually increase across northern portions of WW 475 over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated strong storms east of the Black hills, and a separate/expanding cluster of storms moving eastward out of southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming into northern portions of WW 475. With a moist/moderately unstable environment in the vicinity of the warm and cold fronts and the narrow warm sector in between, and veering flow with height providing ample shear for rotating storms, the overall environment remains supportive of large hail and damaging gusts with stronger storms. As such, as the convection spreads eastward into western South Dakota, severe risk should gradually increase. ..Goss.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45130421 45960385 45940212 44190113 43460129 43350310 44060530 44850535 45130421 Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 476 TORNADO ND 272145Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will possibly develop late this afternoon into the evening across western North Dakota. In addition to the threat for a couple of tornadoes, a risk for large to very large hail (diameters 1 to 3 inches) and severe gusts will also accompany any discrete supercells. A band of severe thunderstorms is forecast to move west to east across the Watch area later this evening. A risk for a tornado may exist with any supercell embedded within the broken band. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) will be likely with the more intense portions of the band of storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston ND to 60 miles south southwest of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474...WW 475... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more