Severe Storms

MD 1839 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 602... FOR COASTAL SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...coastal SC Concerning...Tornado Watch 602... Valid 060841Z - 061015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 602 continues. SUMMARY...A couple tornadoes remain possible early this morning in association with Tropical Storm Debby. DISCUSSION...To the northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Debby, small rotating cells have been noted early this morning within multiple bands of convection. A possible tornado was reported across Berkeley County, SC shortly before 07 UTC, within the outermost band of convection, with other briefly rotating cells noted within an inner band to the west/southwest of Charleston. The KCLX continues to indicate 0-1 km SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2, sufficient for at least transient low-level circulations. Weak instability will continue to be a limiting factor farther inland, but MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg will persist closer to the coast, where temperatures and dewpoints are in the mid/upper 70s F. Some tornado threat may gradually expand northeastward with time, in concert with Debby's slow forward motion. ..Dean.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 32498099 32948094 33647933 33607899 33347879 33037906 32887937 32607980 32478009 32288037 32118072 32498099 Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-061040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-061040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-061040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-061040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-061040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-061040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-061040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-061040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-061040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-061040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-061040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-061040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 602 TORNADO SC CW 060445Z - 061100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Coastal South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1245 AM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Convective bands associated with Debby will continue to foster storms moving inland from the coastal waters. Stronger embedded mini supercells within the convective bands will yield an attendant tornado risk near the coast through much of the overnight and into the early morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles southwest of Charleston SC to 60 miles east northeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600...WW 601... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 15030. ...Smith Read more

MD 1838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WI...FAR NORTHEAST IL...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...Southeast WI...far northeast IL...southwest lower MI...southern Lake Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060726Z - 060930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this morning. DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is currently moving across southeast WI, with a recent history of localized wind gusts in the 40-45 kt range. While this cluster has weakened somewhat as it has moved into a less unstable environment, a notable pressure perturbation persists, as noted by a relatively sharp pressure rise/fall couplet and earlier easterly 46 kt gust at KMSN. This cluster may persist overnight as it moves east-southeastward along a low-level baroclinic zone, aided by a rather strong nocturnal low-level jet. While substantial low-level stability will tend to limit a more widespread severe threat, isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this morning, especially if the ongoing cluster can propagate into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment across southwest lower MI. ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... LAT...LON 42268890 42968876 43178823 43138706 43028626 42778562 42488564 42258564 41878607 42088743 42268890 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more