Severe Storms

WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0475 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0475 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-091-103-107-113-272140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-041-047-055-272140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GARFIELD GRAND KANE PIUTE SAN JUAN SEVIER UINTAH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-091-103-107-113-272140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-041-047-055-272140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GARFIELD GRAND KANE PIUTE SAN JUAN SEVIER UINTAH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1445 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271818Z - 272045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe-storm threat will gradually increase from west to east across portions of central and eastern Montana this afternoon. Large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery indicates a band of large-scale ascent overspreading west/central MT -- ahead of a midlevel trough/low tracking eastward across the Northwest. At the leading edge of this ascent, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are tracking east-northeastward along the higher terrain in west/central MT. Over the next several hours, this activity will continue spreading eastward across central into eastern MT, generally in tandem with the large-scale ascent. Additional development is also possible in areas of differential heating farther east. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by 12Z regional soundings) will erode remaining low-level inhibition and promote a gradual uptick in updraft intensity through the afternoon. Around 50 kt of effective shear associated with the eastward-advancing trough will support storm organization, and a mostly straight hodograph should favor a mix of splitting supercell structures and organized clusters. Large hail (some potentially 2+ inches) and severe outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. The risk of severe gusts (some 75+ mph) should increase with eastward extent, especially with any upscale-growing clusters. While a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out in this area, the more-favorable tornado environment should generally develop over areas farther east (far eastern MT into the Dakotas), where richer boundary-layer moisture and curved hodographs are expected. A watch is likely for portions of the area later this afternoon, though timing of issuance is a bit uncertain at this time. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46320967 46920906 47200870 47580813 47800768 48110706 48290651 48430569 48330512 47910473 46990450 46390455 45770483 45470550 45220700 45160853 45240924 45430965 45710987 46030989 46320967 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Carolinas/GA... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong gusts remain possible into early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F. Current cloud cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across central ND. Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for more information. ...Eastern Great Basin... No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe thunderstorm watch 474 for more information. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more