Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SLN TO 30 ESE BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465 ..SUPINIE..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-017-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-115-121- 127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SLN TO 30 ESE BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465 ..SUPINIE..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-017-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-115-121- 127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

MD 1464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282224Z - 290000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a pronounced baroclinic boundary that resides immediately ahead of an approaching 500 mb vort max along the ND/MT border region. Along this boundary, 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are present, boosting the 0-3 km CAPE to over 150 J/kg in spots (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Given modest deep-layer shear, shorter-lived multicells capable of isolated instances of severe hail and wind are expected. If more dominant, cellular convection can anchor to the boundary for any appreciable period of time, a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, given how sparse and marginal the severe threat is expected to be, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49080303 49200144 48740018 48239969 47709973 47360017 47300058 47510127 47960196 49080303 Read more

MD 1463 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1463 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northwestern into north-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282208Z - 282345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an overall increase in storm coverage and intensity across portions of northwestern into north-central CO, where observed MESH cores are suggesting hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter in spots. These storms are intensifying within a adequately sheared troposphere (modestly elongated hodographs based on RAP forecasting soundings), with low and mid-level lapse rates in the 9+ C/km range. As such, strong and sustained updrafts should obtain multicell and supercell structures through the afternoon, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 40281024 41130821 41220623 40650505 40010498 39440547 39220678 39380816 39620888 40281024 Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-017-027-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-115- 121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE CLAY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY Read more

WW 480 TORNADO KS MO 282220Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central into Eastern Kansas Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop into the evening across the Watch area. A few supercells are possible, and an accompanying risk for large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and a threat for a couple of tornadoes, will potentially maximize during the early to mid evening. If a cluster of storms can develop later this evening, a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) will become an increasing severe hazard, in addition to a threat for hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Chillicothe MO to 40 miles west southwest of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1462 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southwestern Nebraska...northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282056Z - 282300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered high based storms to develop through the afternoon/evening with potential for damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a region of towering cumulus across southeastern Wyoming into the Front Range in Colorado, with a few recent attempts at thunderstorm initiation. This largely region remains under the influence of mid-level capping, though recent radar observations did indicate cells producing lightning briefly in the Nebraska panhandle. Trends in cumulus development and several initiation attempts indicate mid-level capping may be eroding, with potential for additional thunderstorm development within the next 1-2 hours. Low-level moisture is meager, with high-based elevated cells expected that likely need to move into the richer low-level moisture and increasing deep layer shear to the east across western Nebraska/Kansas before become more organized. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible. This area is being monitored for trends for watch potential through the afternoon/evening. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40410440 40690431 41760277 41720214 41590120 40820075 40080051 39320049 38590067 38510157 39290326 40000446 40410440 Read more

MD 1461 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1461 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...far southeast Nebraska into central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282023Z - 282300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging gusts are expected after 22/23Z, from northeast Kansas into central Iowa. A tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate warming continuing ahead of a cold front which extends from near the NE/IA border into central KS. Meanwhile, a diffuse warm front extends from western IA southward along the KS/MO border, with substantial cloud cover limiting heating over much of IA and MO. Recently, clouds have thinned into southwest IA, northwest MO and northeast KS, with a plume of steep lapse rates developing from the southwest. As temperatures have risen into the mid 90s F near the KS portion of the front, CIN has been reduced to negligible proportions. However, lift is currently weak. Farther north into northwest MO and IA, temperatures do continue to slowly warm, with ample boundary layer moisture present. Eventually, lift along the front should interact with the increasingly uncapped air mass and allow for a few strong to severe storms to develop. Deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt along with modest low-level SRH within the warm advection zone may support supercells, with large hail the most likely severe mode. However, 0-1 km SRH over 100 m2/s2 may be sufficient to support a brief tornado threat in a cell or two, although the capping inversion and overall lack of strong upper support suggests this threat should remain isolated. ..Jewell.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39609355 39159411 39019503 39139600 39439636 40069654 40519615 41319559 41739548 42119531 42359459 42379371 42209344 41909323 41329302 40649310 39609355 Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0480 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more