Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should support corridors of damaging wind. Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2 from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado potential. Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around 850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing wind or hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. Read more

MD 1474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...eastern Upper Peninsula into northern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291814Z - 291945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds of 40-60 mph and a couple instances of hail to near 1 inch diameter through the afternoon. A watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface low/triple point across the eastern U.P into northern Lower MI through the afternoon. A moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F and heating into the mid/upper 70s is contributing to weak destabilization amid strong vertical shear. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but sufficient instability and shear may support a few briefly strong/severe cells capable of mainly gusty winds and marginally severe hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45218755 46148725 46718656 46848509 46288427 45318381 44518428 43948524 44058613 44138661 45218755 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more