Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MFD TO 10 E YNG TO 25 SSW JHW. ..EDWARDS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-099-111-119-121-151-157-169- 291940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE STARK TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-047-051- 053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-073-081-083-085-087-093-097-099- 105-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-129-291940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA ELK FAYETTE Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MFD TO 10 E YNG TO 25 SSW JHW. ..EDWARDS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-099-111-119-121-151-157-169- 291940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE STARK TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-047-051- 053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-073-081-083-085-087-093-097-099- 105-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-129-291940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA ELK FAYETTE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 29 18:01:20 UTC 2024.

MD 1472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF OH...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of OH...northern WV...and western PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291603Z - 291800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a tornado or two also may occur. Timing of watch issuance is uncertain, but area is being monitored for watch issuance within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has been slowly increasing along the leading edge of an area showers left over from overnight/early morning convection moving into northern/central OH. Rich boundary-layer moisture is in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F noted in morning observations. Widespread cloudiness is limiting heating, and temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to near 80F. With time, pockets of stronger destabilization are expected into afternoon, with downstream destabilization expected into parts of northern VA/western PA by early to mid-afternoon. However, cloud cover and poor lapse rates may limit more widespread stronger instability. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for transient supercells and bands of bowing segments. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with convection through the afternoon and into early evening. While low-level shear will remain somewhat weak, vertically veering profiles will result in somewhat enlarge and curved low-level hodographs suitable for a tornado or two in addition to damaging gust potential. Additional convection is possible into the evening hours as the synoptic cold front (currently over northern IL) shifts east/southeast across the area. As a result, multiple bands/rounds of strong/severe storms are possible. Timing of watch issuance is a bit uncertain, but the trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41278264 41878081 41928056 41967926 41517853 40617868 39917902 39337972 38968070 38818244 38858341 39028427 39228444 39518458 39848475 40438406 41108291 41278264 Read more

MD 1473 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 1473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of central IL into central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291642Z - 291745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over the next couple of hours. Locally damaging gusts are possible. Watch issuance is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima is evident in water vapor imagery from near St. Louis into central IL. An isolated thunderstorm has developed over central IL on the leading edge of this vorticity max and along the southern fringe of modest vertical shear. A very moist and modestly unstable airmass resides downstream from this feature, and may support a couple of loosely organized cells through the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts may accompany this activity given increasing destabilization into the afternoon, and PW values greater than 1.75 inches enhancing wet microburst potential. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected given the overall marginal environment. However, trends will continue to be monitored, especially as additional storm development is possible later this afternoon along the southeast-advancing cold front currently draped across northern IL. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39968921 40298819 40298678 40148585 39878533 39468537 39088584 38938704 38788793 38748899 38878972 39338974 39618968 39968921 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more