Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 28 21:47:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 28 19:58:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may occur from parts of the central Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line for the 20z update. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the prior outlook. Isolated strong to severe storms still appear possible from the central High Plains into parts of IA/MO from late afternoon into tonight. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below, and any forthcoming mesoscale convective discussions. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies/High Plains will progress eastward today to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to meander slowly eastward over northern MN through this evening, while a secondary low consolidates over central KS. An occluded/cold front extending from the northern MN low will develop slowly southeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley this afternoon. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for strong/severe convection later today. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Better forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should generally remain displaced to the north of the central Plains and mid MO Valley through much of the day. Also, the lingering effect of morning clouds/precipitation will be to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front and glancing large-scale ascent will probably be sufficient for convective initiation through 20-00Z across parts of IA into eastern NE, and northeast KS into northern MO. Even modest daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will support a narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability. Strengthening westerly winds through mid/upper levels will foster strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Initial development along the cold front from eastern NE into central IA may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail. Upscale growth into clusters and short line segments with a greater severe/damaging wind threat seems probable with time this evening. The eastern extent of the severe risk across the mid MS Valley will be modulated by the narrow zone of stronger instability, and convection should gradually weaken as it continues eastward late this evening and overnight. The tornado threat across these areas today appears less clear. While a modest southwesterly low-level jet will aid in sufficient low-level shear for updraft rotation, it remains unclear whether multiple supercells will be able to persist into the early evening hours. Still, some threat for a couple tornadoes remains apparent, mainly near/northeast of the surface low in northeast KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be locally maximized. A separate area of high-based convective development should occur this afternoon across the central High Plains, along/north of the cold front in a weak low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will move generally east-southeastward through the evening through a very well-mixed boundary layer, with generally weak to moderate instability present. Although low-level winds should remain modest, gradually increasing westerly flow at mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat as one or more small clusters continue east-southeastward across western/central NE/KS late this afternoon and evening. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur if convection can become well organized into a small bowing cluster. Some large hail also appears possible, particularly with any initial supercells. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along an occluded front extending into parts of ND as the upper trough/low moves eastward over the northern Plains today. While instability appears fairly modest, occasional hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust convection given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Read more