Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England. ...Synopsis... It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain. ...Northern Mid Atlantic/New England... Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday. It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening. Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop today from parts of eastern North Carolina into central Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Central Virginia... Tropical Storm Debby will move northward across eastern South Carolina today and into southern Virginia by this evening. Rainbands associated with Debby are forecast to move from North Carolina this morning into Virginia by afternoon. Although the strongest destabilization is expected in the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, the strongest low-level winds associated with Debby are forecast to be further to the west. RAP forecast sounding along the path of the strongest low-level winds have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, associated with the more discrete storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The tornado threat is expected to continue this evening, as Debby approaches southern Virginia, and gradually weakens in the process. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/08/2024 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-031-049-055-061-095-103-133-137-177-187-080640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES ONSLOW PAMLICO TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231-080640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC TO OREGON INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM Read more