Severe Storms

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0625 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 625 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 152300Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northwestern Arkansas Southeastern Kansas Southwestern and south-central Missouri Western, central and northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered pulse-severe downbursts with embedded damaging gusts and large hail are possible from thunderstorms the next several hours in a well-heated, unstable and very moist environment. A few small clusters also may organize with cold-pool-driven wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Clinton OK to 30 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623...WW 624... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-029-039-049-051-053-071-087-095-099-101-107-111- 117-121-123-125-135-137-145-153-157-159-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-152340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT HENRY IOWA JASPER JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-003-005-045-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-115-117-121- 127-129-147-171-197-199-205-211-227-152340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152026Z - 152300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Portions of northern and central Oklahoma are being monitored for severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail. It is unclear if a watch is needed at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar data indicate agitated cumulus (some possibly rooted above the boundary layer) and isolated convective initiation across northern and central OK -- generally focused along a pre-frontal surface trough. During the next few hours, several high-based thunderstorms should evolve and gradually intensify, given continued boundary-layer heating/steepening lapse rates and rich boundary-layer moisture. While around 20-25 kt of effective shear could limit storm organization until a substantial cold pool can develop, sporadic strong to severe downbursts and marginally severe hail could accompany the more robust cores in the near term. With time, increasing storm coverage should promote a greater risk of severe gusts, especially with any convective clustering that occurs. It is unclear if a watch will be needed in the near term, and convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35989872 36589733 36959619 36929580 36699554 36249553 35889568 34949733 34729792 34739858 34949903 35369919 35719912 35989872 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 152240Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Extreme southwestern Indiana Northwestern Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A growing cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms should continue to pose severe-weather potential across southern IL and to the adjoining Ohio Valley. Additional development is possible over southeastern Missouri to its west as well. Occasional severe gusts and large hail are the main concerns, and a tornado cannot be ruled out The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Farmington MO to 30 miles south southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1908 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152003Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears possible as early as 5-7 PM CDT. One or two supercells may evolve, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for convective development remains generally weak and/or unclear. However, a seasonably moist boundary-layer along and east of the southeastward advancing weak surface troughing is becoming moderately unstable across parts of northeast Kansas into southern Iowa, where CAPE now appears in excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level inhibition is eroding. This is being aided by both continuing insolation and mid-level cooling associated with a notable short wave perturbation pivoting across the mid to lower Missouri Valley vicinity. As the exit region of a 40-70 kt westerly jet in the 500-300 mb layer noses across the stronger destabilization, vertical shear is becoming increasingly conducive to supercells. Although timing of thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible as early as 22-00z, particularly within a corridor east-southeast of St. Joseph MO through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40219546 41349399 41859248 41099091 40429178 38959464 39279575 40219546 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0623 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 15 20:29:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more