Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass. Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass. Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass. Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass. Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass. Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass. Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/17/2024 Read more

MD 1923 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162231Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds locally -- with potential for a gust or two near severe levels -- can be expected over the next couple of hours across a portion of far southeastern Wisconsin and into northern Illinois. WW issuance is not expected, due to anticipated marginal/isolated nature of the risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a semi-organized band of storms has developed over northwestern Illinois, ahead of a subtle, eastward-moving mid-level vort max embedded within the cyclonic flow surrounding the western Lake Superior upper low. A narrow axis of 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated just ahead of the band of storms, which suggests continuation -- and possible/slight strengthening over the next 1 to 2 hours. The latest VWP from the KLOT (Chicago, IL) WSR-88D shows flow weakly veering from west-southwesterly to west-northwesterly with height, and increasing to around 35 kt at mid levels. This should allow storms to progress into the Chicago -- and possibly Milwaukee -- vicinity, accompanied by gusty winds. While a couple of gusts could near or reach severe levels, risk should remain sparse and marginal, and thus insufficient to warrant WW consideration. ..Goss/Edwards.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41899033 42458943 43088879 42888810 41938760 41438790 41418935 41899033 Read more

MD 1924 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Central and northern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628... Valid 162300Z - 170030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628. At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and transient supercells have percolated in intensity from far western OK into far northwestern AR over the past few hours. At the moment, a couple of strong thunderstorm clusters are ongoing along diffuse baroclinic boundaries, were surface temperatures are in the upper 90s to low 100s F, contributing to 8.5-9.5 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates. As such, the more intense, persistent updrafts may support a large-hail threat until they become outflow dominant, when severe gusts become the main concern. However, deep-layer ascent/shear remain weak, so thunderstorms may continue to struggle to maintain intensity, with the severe threat perhaps becoming gradually more isolated through the evening. ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35790001 36779902 37039498 36729390 36239357 35889366 35669546 35249766 35169872 35169943 35199997 35790001 Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1924 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Central and northern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628... Valid 162300Z - 170030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628. At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and transient supercells have percolated in intensity from far western OK into far northwestern AR over the past few hours. At the moment, a couple of strong thunderstorm clusters are ongoing along diffuse baroclinic boundaries, were surface temperatures are in the upper 90s to low 100s F, contributing to 8.5-9.5 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates. As such, the more intense, persistent updrafts may support a large-hail threat until they become outflow dominant, when severe gusts become the main concern. However, deep-layer ascent/shear remain weak, so thunderstorms may continue to struggle to maintain intensity, with the severe threat perhaps becoming gradually more isolated through the evening. ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35790001 36779902 37039498 36729390 36239357 35889366 35669546 35249766 35169872 35169943 35199997 35790001 Read more

MD 1923 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162231Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds locally -- with potential for a gust or two near severe levels -- can be expected over the next couple of hours across a portion of far southeastern Wisconsin and into northern Illinois. WW issuance is not expected, due to anticipated marginal/isolated nature of the risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a semi-organized band of storms has developed over northwestern Illinois, ahead of a subtle, eastward-moving mid-level vort max embedded within the cyclonic flow surrounding the western Lake Superior upper low. A narrow axis of 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated just ahead of the band of storms, which suggests continuation -- and possible/slight strengthening over the next 1 to 2 hours. The latest VWP from the KLOT (Chicago, IL) WSR-88D shows flow weakly veering from west-southwesterly to west-northwesterly with height, and increasing to around 35 kt at mid levels. This should allow storms to progress into the Chicago -- and possibly Milwaukee -- vicinity, accompanied by gusty winds. While a couple of gusts could near or reach severe levels, risk should remain sparse and marginal, and thus insufficient to warrant WW consideration. ..Goss/Edwards.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41899033 42458943 43088879 42888810 41938760 41438790 41418935 41899033 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 16 21:57:24 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more