Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1920 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Wisconsin into parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161853Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity likely will continue to increase in coverage while also slowly intensifying across central into southwestern Wisconsin, and perhaps adjacent portions of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, through 3-5 PM CDT. Some small to marginally severe hail is possible, before activity gradually organizes and poses a risk for strong to severe gusts while approaching southern Lake Michigan into early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently been intensifying over central Wisconsin, near Wisconsin Rapids. This is beneath the modest mid-level cold core of a broad mid/upper low slowly shifting into the upper Great Lakes region, and in advance of an associated intrusion of cooler/drier air which has overspread much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Wind fields and shear near the ongoing convection are rather weak, but low-level lapse rates have become relatively steep with daytime heating, and easterly low-level inflow into convection appears characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg. To the west and southwest of this convection, a digging mid-level cyclonic vorticity center and associated speed maximum may contribute to forcing for gradually increasing new thunderstorm development across southwestern into south central Wisconsin and adjacent portions of Iowa/northern Illinois through 20-22Z. As this occurs, in closer proximity to the jet streak, strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 30-40 kt) may be sufficient to support organizing convection. This may gradually be accompanied by a strengthening surface cold pool with by strong to locally severe gusts while advancing toward southern Lake Michigan into this evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42479086 43409025 44158951 43638787 42298835 42018952 42049073 42479086 Read more

MD 1922 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162020Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around 40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030 36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265 36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934 Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161907Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for additional convection develops continues east and southeast. DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and weakening of capping occurs and supercells can become surface based, given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts. This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in south-central Kansas. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558 36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696 37789767 37219781 36809765 Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 628 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 162035Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Extreme southwest Missouri Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorm development are possible along and south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border through late evening, in a storm environment favoring organized clusters and supercells. The more intense storms will be capable of producing very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, as well as severe outflow winds up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 30 miles south southeast of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more