Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

MD 2064 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 671... FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 671... Valid 130028Z - 130230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 671 continues. SUMMARY...A small area of conditional tornado potential remains over parts of central Alabama, but probabilities will continue to drop over time. DISCUSSION...Prior to sunset, visible satellite showed areas of agitated CU along a confluence line, and west of a warm front which now stretches from near Birmingham AL into southwest GA. A moist air mass remains over the region, with precipitable water in excess of 1.80". Scattered cells, primarily elevated, developed over east-central AL, and persist this evening. Despite the moist troposphere, instability is not particular strong, and, confined to a relatively narrow axis just west of the warm front. Low-level shear remains favorable in a conditional sense for rotating storms/supercells, however, it appears unlikely at this point that any robust convective machinations will develop to take advantage of said shear. ..Jewell.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31408685 32018706 32558715 33048737 33298757 33368728 33058653 32488581 32098573 31578589 31298638 31408685 Read more

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 672 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W Y22 TO 40 WSW N60 TO 35 NNW SDY TO 75 SW GGW. ..WEINMAN..09/13/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 672 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-085-091-105-130240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY NDC001-013-023-041-061-105-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BURKE DIVIDE HETTINGER MOUNTRAIL WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 672 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W Y22 TO 40 WSW N60 TO 35 NNW SDY TO 75 SW GGW. ..WEINMAN..09/13/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 672 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-085-091-105-130240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY NDC001-013-023-041-061-105-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BURKE DIVIDE HETTINGER MOUNTRAIL WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 672 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 122235Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeastern and Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify late this afternoon and evening and spread northeast into the Watch area. The stronger thunderstorms, including a mix of cells and linear clusters, will be potentially capable of a severe threat. Severe gusts will probably be the primary severe hazard (60-85 mph), but large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores as well (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Glasgow MT to 55 miles northeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670...WW 671... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 21050. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected this evening in parts of eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and in the western Dakotas. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. Storms with an isolated tornado threat may also occur this evening in central Alabama. ...Northern High Plains... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low in the northern Rockies, with cyclonic south to southwest flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a dual-centered low and an associated cold front is analyzed across the western Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are located near the front, and further west into the post-frontal airmass in eastern Montana. Within this area of storms, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F, and the RAP is currently estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Glasgow, Montana and Minot, North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, most RAP forecast soundings near and just behind the front have 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. Surface obs have temperature-dewpoint depressions mostly varying between 15 and 25 degrees F. This environment should continue to support supercells with potential for severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. Isolated large hail may also occur. The greatest severe threat should be over far northeastern Montana into far western North Dakota, near the location of the strongest instability. The threat should persist through the mid to late evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine extending from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward in the central Gulf Coast states. A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern and central Alabama, where the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability. Near the axis, the 00Z sounding at Birmingham has MUCAPE around 600 J/kg, with 0-1 Km shear near 40 knots. This should support an isolated threat for supercells and tornadoes. The threat will be concentrated in a relatively small area across central Alabama, where the combination of instability and low-level shear is maximized. The threat is expected to be isolated, and may persist into the late evening. ..Broyles.. 09/13/2024 Read more

WW 0671 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 671 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SEM TO 30 NNE SEM TO 30 WNW BHM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 ..JEWELL..09/13/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 671 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-021-037-051-073-085-101-117-130140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CHILTON COOSA ELMORE JEFFERSON LOWNDES MONTGOMERY SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0671 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 671 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SEM TO 30 NNE SEM TO 30 WNW BHM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 ..JEWELL..09/13/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 671 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-021-037-051-073-085-101-117-130140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CHILTON COOSA ELMORE JEFFERSON LOWNDES MONTGOMERY SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 671 TORNADO AL 122135Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Alabama * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A convective band within a moist and strongly sheared environment will feature embedded quasi-discrete updrafts late this afternoon into the evening. Several supercells will potentially pose a tornado risk before instability wanes late this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Selma AL to 45 miles northeast of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CPR TO 25 SW GCC TO 25 WNW GCC TO 30 ESE SHR TO 10 SSE SHR TO 25 W SHR TO 55 WNW SHR TO 40 SSE BIL. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-122240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE WYC005-033-122240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CPR TO 25 SW GCC TO 25 WNW GCC TO 30 ESE SHR TO 10 SSE SHR TO 25 W SHR TO 55 WNW SHR TO 40 SSE BIL. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-122240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE WYC005-033-122240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CPR TO 25 SW GCC TO 25 WNW GCC TO 30 ESE SHR TO 10 SSE SHR TO 25 W SHR TO 55 WNW SHR TO 40 SSE BIL. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-122240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE WYC005-033-122240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more