Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

MD 2066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131751Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster has recently become better organized across the FL Panhandle. The KEVX VWP depicts backed (but also relatively weak) low-level flow with modest southwesterly flow aloft, supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt. Modest heating is ongoing downstream of this cluster, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. This may help to sustain the ongoing cluster, along with some potential for additional development into southwest GA with time. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, along with some potential for a tornado where surface flow remains backed through the afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31138617 31558524 32018376 31368328 30968342 30228388 29998463 30118551 30318602 30528600 31138617 Read more

MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF AL INTO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of AL into middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131721Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado may increase into this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A remnant surface low is located over northern AR early this afternoon. An occluded front extends east-northeast of the low into western TN, then extends southeast as a stationary or warm front across parts of northern/central AL into western GA. Farther south, a cold front is moving across MS, with a surface trough/wind shift noted to the east from western AL into southern MS. In the vicinity of these boundaries, convection is gradually increasing from western AL into southern middle TN, and a few cells across northwest AL have exhibited some weak rotation. While low-level flow/shear has gradually decreased as the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Francine has weakened, effective SRH of around 100 m2/s2 and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to favor occasionally organized convection into this afternoon. MLCAPE will increase to near or above 1000 J/kg, with an increase in convective coverage expected with time within a weakly capped environment. A few marginal supercells could evolve with time, and a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in a zone between the surface trough/wind shift approaching from the west and the effective warm front to the east, where low-level flow will remain locally backed as gradual heating/destabilization continues. Otherwise, locally damaging winds will be possible, especially if any localized clustering of convection can develop with time. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG... LAT...LON 32228565 31618689 31888728 32568749 34138797 34948822 35448837 35718835 35898821 36088759 36108707 35658637 33948592 32638572 32228565 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more