Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 13 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more