Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will yield a closed mid/upper low over northern to central CA by Sunday night. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream should foster a broadening area of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West amid scant buoyancy north of AZ. During the late afternoon, moderate MLCAPE should develop across parts of the western Great Plains to central TX. This could be sufficient for a few strong, but pulse-type thunderstorms given predominantly weak shear. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will yield a closed mid/upper low over northern to central CA by Sunday night. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream should foster a broadening area of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West amid scant buoyancy north of AZ. During the late afternoon, moderate MLCAPE should develop across parts of the western Great Plains to central TX. This could be sufficient for a few strong, but pulse-type thunderstorms given predominantly weak shear. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will yield a closed mid/upper low over northern to central CA by Sunday night. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream should foster a broadening area of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West amid scant buoyancy north of AZ. During the late afternoon, moderate MLCAPE should develop across parts of the western Great Plains to central TX. This could be sufficient for a few strong, but pulse-type thunderstorms given predominantly weak shear. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will yield a closed mid/upper low over northern to central CA by Sunday night. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream should foster a broadening area of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West amid scant buoyancy north of AZ. During the late afternoon, moderate MLCAPE should develop across parts of the western Great Plains to central TX. This could be sufficient for a few strong, but pulse-type thunderstorms given predominantly weak shear. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will yield a closed mid/upper low over northern to central CA by Sunday night. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream should foster a broadening area of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West amid scant buoyancy north of AZ. During the late afternoon, moderate MLCAPE should develop across parts of the western Great Plains to central TX. This could be sufficient for a few strong, but pulse-type thunderstorms given predominantly weak shear. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of northern Nebraska and west-central South Dakota. ...Northern Nebraska/West-central South Dakota... A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the northern and central High Plains today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the northern High Plains, with the western edge of a moist airmass located in the western Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm today within this airmass, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northwestern Nebraska into western South Dakota. Thunderstorms will be possible near and to the east of this axis of instability during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z at Pierre, South Dakota have MLCAPE near 800 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat near peak heating. The strongest of cells could produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of northern Nebraska and west-central South Dakota. ...Northern Nebraska/West-central South Dakota... A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the northern and central High Plains today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the northern High Plains, with the western edge of a moist airmass located in the western Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm today within this airmass, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northwestern Nebraska into western South Dakota. Thunderstorms will be possible near and to the east of this axis of instability during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z at Pierre, South Dakota have MLCAPE near 800 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat near peak heating. The strongest of cells could produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of northern Nebraska and west-central South Dakota. ...Northern Nebraska/West-central South Dakota... A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the northern and central High Plains today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the northern High Plains, with the western edge of a moist airmass located in the western Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm today within this airmass, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northwestern Nebraska into western South Dakota. Thunderstorms will be possible near and to the east of this axis of instability during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z at Pierre, South Dakota have MLCAPE near 800 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat near peak heating. The strongest of cells could produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of northern Nebraska and west-central South Dakota. ...Northern Nebraska/West-central South Dakota... A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the northern and central High Plains today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the northern High Plains, with the western edge of a moist airmass located in the western Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm today within this airmass, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northwestern Nebraska into western South Dakota. Thunderstorms will be possible near and to the east of this axis of instability during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z at Pierre, South Dakota have MLCAPE near 800 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat near peak heating. The strongest of cells could produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of northern Nebraska and west-central South Dakota. ...Northern Nebraska/West-central South Dakota... A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the northern and central High Plains today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the northern High Plains, with the western edge of a moist airmass located in the western Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm today within this airmass, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northwestern Nebraska into western South Dakota. Thunderstorms will be possible near and to the east of this axis of instability during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z at Pierre, South Dakota have MLCAPE near 800 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat near peak heating. The strongest of cells could produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern Alabama. ...Central and Northern Alabama... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern Alabama. ...Central and Northern Alabama... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern Alabama. ...Central and Northern Alabama... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 09/14/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 13 22:35:01 UTC 2024.